The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has warned that Nigeria’s April inflation outlook points to a fragile disinflation process, noting that the conditions remain severe for households and businesses in the country.

The think tank made this known in a statement signed by its Chief Executive Officer, Muda Yusuf, on Friday, noting that inflation conditions remain severe from a welfare and business cost perspective.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), in its April inflation report on Friday, stated that headline inflation rose marginally from 15.38 per cent in March to 15.69 per cent in April.

CPPE said the trend indicates that although inflationary pressures remain elevated, the pace of acceleration was relatively moderate.

It highlighted some positive signals in short-term inflation trends, pointing to broad-based moderation across key month-on-month indicators.

The NBS report also shows that headline month-on-month inflation declined by 2.05 per cent, food inflation eased by 0.54 per cent, core inflation declined by 3.0 per cent, while urban inflation moderated by 1.3 per cent.

“More encouraging, however, was the moderation in the month-on-month inflation metrics across virtually all major indicators,” the think tank stated.

It also showed that rural inflation dropped sharply by 3.9 per cent, which CPPE said suggests a weakening in short-term inflationary momentum.

Warning

Despite this improvement, CPPE warned that inflationary conditions remain severe for households and businesses. It noted that food inflation stood at 16.06 per cent, while core inflation remained elevated at 15.86 per cent.

“The dominant inflation drivers continue to be food, transportation, energy products, healthcare and restaurant services, which together accounted for about 87 per cent of the inflation pressure recorded in April.

“These are essential expenditure items which absorb the bulk of household income, particularly among low-income Nigerians,” CPPE said.

The think tank attributed rising inflation risks partly to geopolitical tensions involving Iran, Israel, and the United States, which have increased volatility in global oil markets and pushed up energy costs.

The group stressed that Nigeria’s inflation challenge remains structural and supply-driven, arguing that monetary tightening alone is insufficient to address the underlying cost pressures in the economy.

“The conflict has triggered renewed volatility in the global oil market, pushing up crude oil prices and transmitting higher energy costs into the domestic economy.

“Rising petrol, diesel and gas prices are fuelling transportation, logistics and production costs across sectors, with significant pass-through effects on food prices and overall consumer inflation.

“This further underscores the structural and supply-side nature of Nigeria’s inflation challenge. Monetary tightening alone cannot resolve inflation driven by energy costs, logistics inefficiencies, food supply disruptions and weak infrastructure conditions,” it stated.

Solutions

The organisation advised that additional monetary tightening could worsen financing costs for businesses, weaken investment, and further constrain productivity growth.

It called for a stronger focus on supply-side reforms to address production and distribution bottlenecks.

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CPPE called on governments at all levels to intensify measures to reduce energy costs, while also advising businesses to prioritise energy efficiency and dynamic pricing models.

“The policy priority should therefore shift more decisively towards supply-side interventions. Governments at both federal and state levels should intensify measures to reduce energy costs, improve transportation infrastructure, strengthen food supply systems, enhance trade facilitation and support domestic productivity.

“For businesses, the operating environment remains extremely challenging. Firms should prioritise energy efficiency, dynamic pricing models, consumer segmentation and affordability-driven product strategies, including smaller pack sizes, as consumers become increasingly price-sensitive and discretionary spending weakens,” CPPE stated.