The Nigerian non-oil export sector is facing threats from logistics and energy costs despite the massive growth potential the sector signals, a new report revealed.

The report, titled ‘3T Impex Non-Oil Export Index Report 2026’, published on Wednesday, revealed the paradox of Nigeria’s international trade sector.

Published by 3T Impex Trade Consulting, the report synthesised data from 87,824 export transactions between 2021 and 2025, alongside a detailed sentiment survey of 94 active non-oil exporters across Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones.

The report stated that while exporter confidence and global demand have reached record highs, severe structural bottlenecks, specifically skyrocketing logistics and energy costs, are actively neutralizing these gains and pushing smaller exporters out of the market.

The findings present a 75-point chasm between market ambition and operational reality.

According to the report, the ‘Business Confidence Index’ stands at a strong 87.8 out of 100, with 75.5 per cent of exporters reporting actual sales growth and 91.5 per cent expecting global demand to improve.

This optimism is further reflected in the ‘Predictive Outlook Index’, which scored an exceptional 92.8, as 83.0 per cent of respondents plan to invest and expand their capacity.

Challenges

However, this optimism is heavily overshadowed by the ‘Logistics Benchmark Index’, which plummeted to a critical low of 12.8 out of 100, the weakest index in the entire study.

In the index, a staggering 77.7 per cent of exporters reported increased inland transport and port handling costs over the period.

“Nigeria’s non-oil exporters are confident, market-facing, and growing. But a Logistics Benchmark of 12.8 out of 100 is a structural emergency, not a policy inconvenience.

“When 77.7 per cent of exporters face rising logistics costs while simultaneously recording the strongest sentiment scores (87.8 confidence, 92.8 outlook), the system is trapping its own best performers,” the report stated.

The report further identified operational hurdles, rather than market demand, as the primary constraints to scaling.

It showed that 51.1 per cent of exporters cited the high cost of energy and processing as their absolute number one barrier, which forces many to avoid value-addition and revert to exporting raw commodities.

Also, 28.7 per cent identified quality and standardization rejections as their top constraint, highlighting the urgent need for better certification infrastructure to meet strict global requirements like the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR).

Additionally, the report warned of a worsening national risk, noting that 71.7 per cent of all exports now exit through just two Lagos ports (Tincan Island and Apapa), with Tincan’s share alone growing to 45.9 per cent in 2025.

Intervention

While the total export value grew by an impressive 93 per cent over five years to reach $6.17 billion in 2025, the actual transaction count dropped from 18,280 in 2021 to 16,683 in 2025.

This indicates that Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) are being systematically excluded from the formal export system due to prohibitive logistics overheads.

The report presented other key metrics that reveal a stagnant operating environment. The ‘Regulatory Efficiency Index’ scored 54.8, reflecting a system that acts as a passive constraint.

The ‘Financial Health Index’ stood at a fragile 52.7, indicating that current export growth is occurring despite a lack of robust financial system support.

The report further advocated immediate, deliberate action from policymakers and financial institutions to embark on urgent recommendations addressing the high export costs issues.

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The report advised policymakers to diversify export port infrastructure by activating Onne Port to relieve Lagos, resolving grid power reliability for export zones, expanding NEXIM export credit insurance, and creating logistics-linked pre-export financing to support struggling businesses.

It also advised exporters to consolidate shipments and prioritize quality compliance.

The report presented tools for tracking exporter sentiment and performance, and provided actionable insights to accelerate Nigeria’s export diversification agenda to unlock sustainable economic growth.