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Academic training determines Nigerian policymakers’ use of scientific evidence — Study
A new study has found that senior Nigerian policymakers with doctorate degrees are significantly more likely to rely on diverse forms of research evidence in decision-making than their counterparts without advanced academic training.
The study, published in Policy Sciences, in February, surveyed about 196 senior policy officers across 13 federal ministries and both chambers of the National Assembly and identified three distinct categories of evidence users in Nigeria’s policymaking system.
In the study titled: “Patterns of evidence use in Nigerian policymaking: insights from latent class analysis”, the researchers found that only 20 per cent of respondents—described as “eclectic users”—regularly engaged with a broad mix of rigorous scientific evidence such as systematic reviews, randomised controlled trials, and peer-reviewed studies, alongside other sources like expert opinions and internal documents.
By contrast, 54 per cent belonged to a middle category that recognised several evidence types but relied mostly on less systematic sources such as case studies, expert opinions, internal policy documents, and needs assessments.
Another 25 per cent were classified as “non-users,” reporting little familiarity with most of the 11 evidence types examined in the study, ranging from meta-analyses to news reports.
The research was led by Toyib Aremu of the University of Vermont alongside Travis Reynolds and Fritz Sager of the University of Bern.
Using a statistical approach known as latent class analysis, the researchers examined how Nigerian policymakers interact with different forms of evidence rather than simply asking whether they use research at all.
“Out of the 196 respondents, 146 (or 78.1%) are male, 121 (or 61.7%) work in the National Assembly, and 61% hold at least a master’s degree. The average age of respondents is about 46 years and have worked for about 16 years on average,” the researchers noted.
They said respondents in ministries are all senior officers (starting from grade level 9 for research officer I to grade level 17 for director) while respondents in the National Assembly are mostly senior legislative Aides (80) or legislative aides (31).
Key findings
The study found that the most methodologically rigorous forms of evidence—including meta-analyses, randomised controlled trials, and peer-reviewed survey and qualitative studies—were the least familiar and least used among respondents.
Instead, policymakers reported relying most on expert opinions, case studies, statistical facts, internal policy documents, needs assessments, and news media.
Officials working in ministries were found to depend more on systematic reviews, expert opinions, and statistical facts, while legislative aides in the National Assembly relied more heavily on news media.
The researchers said this reflects the different demands of executive and legislative policymaking.
Doctorate degree strongest predictor
Among the variables examined—gender, age, education, years of experience, and workplace—education emerged as the strongest predictor of how broadly policymakers engaged with evidence.
The study found that holding a doctorate increased the likelihood of belonging to the middle evidence-use group by about nine times and the eclectic group by approximately 21 times, compared to the non-user category.
Years of experience also mattered, with each additional year in service increasing the likelihood of belonging to the middle group by about seven per cent.
However, experience alone did not significantly predict whether a policymaker would become an eclectic user of evidence.
The researchers noted that while years on the job may improve familiarity with available information and strengthen networks with knowledge producers, formal doctoral training appears more important for developing the analytical skills needed to assess rigorous research designs.
No gender or workplace difference
Interestingly, the study found no significant differences between male and female policymakers or between officials in ministries and those in the legislature in terms of evidence-use patterns.
This contrasts with previous international studies, particularly in Canada, where gender and workplace influenced awareness of scientific evidence.
The authors suggested that in Nigeria, access to evidence may depend more on professional experience and academic qualifications than on institutional location or gender.
Implications for Nigeria
Nigeria has long promoted evidence-informed governance, especially since civil service reforms in the 1980s created Departments of Planning, Research and Statistics across ministries, departments and agencies.
However, the study notes that there is still no formal requirement compelling policymakers to base decisions on rigorous evidence, and many officials lack the skills needed to find, assess, and apply such evidence effectively.
Although about 86 per cent of respondents said they were familiar with evidence-informed policymaking and 80 per cent reported using scientific evidence in the past year, the study found that engagement with stronger forms of evidence remains limited.
The researchers said the findings suggest that policy reform efforts should focus on the largest group—the 54 per cent who recognise evidence but use a narrow range of sources.
They recommended targeted training through institutions such as the National Institute for Legislative and Democratic Studies and the National Institute for Policy and Strategic Studies, particularly around systematic reviews and experimental research.
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They also advised the government to recruit more highly educated personnel into policymaking roles and strengthen collaboration between policymakers and local researchers across multiple disciplines.
“The motivation is basically that even though it’s starting to change gradually, there is not a lot of global south context in our understanding of how evidence enters the policy process and without that knowledge, it will be very difficult to ‘configure’ the way we do policy in countries like Nigeria to be more accepting of rigorous evidence,” Mr Aremu said, in an interview with PREMIUM TIMES.
Limitations
The authors acknowledged that the study relied on self-reported survey data, which may be affected by social desirability bias, with respondents possibly overstating their use of evidence.
They also noted that the sample size limited deeper comparisons across ministries or policy sectors.
Future studies, they said, could include additional evidence sources such as monitoring and evaluation reports, constituent feedback, and public opinion surveys.
Still, they concluded that evidence used in Nigerian policymaking follows clear patterns tied strongly to education and experience.
Closing the gap between research and policy, they argued, will require sustained institutional investment rather than short-term interventions.
The Group Chief Executive Officer of NNPC Limited, Bayo Ojulari, has explained why the company selected two Chinese firms, Sanjiang Chemical Company Limited and Xinganchen (Fuzhou) Industrial Park Operation and Management Co. Ltd, for a potential technical equity partnership to revive and operate Nigeria’s Port Harcourt and Warri refineries.
Mr Ojulari said the selection followed a nine-month process during which NNPC considered more than 50 potential partners before narrowing the list to about 20.
He spoke on Tuesday while addressing journalists after the release of NNPC Limited’s 2025 financial results at the NNPC Towers in Abuja.
His comments followed a question from a PREMIUM TIMES correspondent on why NNPC had entrusted the revival of the two refineries to the Chinese companies amid concerns over their capacity and track record.
In May, NNPC announced that it had signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the two Chinese companies for collaboration through a potential technical equity partnership to support the completion and operation of the Port Harcourt and Warri refineries.
“The NNPC Ltd has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with two Chinese companies, Sanjiang Chemical Company Limited and Xinganchen (Fuzhou) Industrial Park Operation and Management Co. Ltd, for collaboration through a potential Technical Equity Partnership in support of the completion and operation of the Port Harcourt and Warri Refineries,” the company said at the time.
NNPC said the proposed arrangement would focus on completing outstanding work at the two refineries and ensuring efficient operation and maintenance to achieve “best-in-class, sustainable performance.”
Why Chinese companies
Mr Ojulari said NNPC did not settle on the companies without considering other potential partners.
“Before we settled on these companies, we considered more than 50 potential partners and eventually narrowed the list to about 20,” he said.
“It took us approximately nine months to reach this stage of the process.”
According to him, the selected companies distinguished themselves based on their credibility and alignment with NNPC’s strategy.
He said several other companies approached by NNPC sought equity participation or significant control of the refineries.
“Most of the other companies we approached wanted us to provide them with equity or allow them to take over the refinery. Some wanted us to sign agreements that would give them significant control over the project,” he said.
Mr Ojulari said the Chinese companies were selected because their proposed approach was more closely aligned with NNPC’s objective of developing a sustainable refinery operation.
“Although we have not yet signed a final agreement with them, they are the only ones that have demonstrated the level of alignment we are looking for,” he said.
“Our vision is to build something sustainable, with a partner that is prepared to invest its own resources and expertise in the project, rather than simply secure a contract for which we would pay it.”
Due diligence
The NNPC boss also defended the companies against concerns about their technical capacity, saying the national oil company had conducted independent due diligence on them.
He said he personally visited their facilities in China alongside members of the NNPC team and board.
“We have conducted independent due diligence on the company. We know its specific address and location, and I personally visited its facilities. I saw its operations with my own eyes,” he said.
According to him, the companies are involved in the operation of a major petrochemical plant in China and have access to significant technical expertise.
“These are people who operate one of the largest petrochemical plants in China, with significant production capacity,” he said.
“Petrochemical plants are even more complex than refineries, as those of us with engineering knowledge understand.”
He also said the company has a stake in one of China’s major refineries and has board-level representation, giving it access to technical expertise and industry talent.
Mr Ojulari said NNPC was deliberately seeking a partner with a long-term stake in the success of the refineries rather than a contractor whose involvement would end after payment.
He illustrated the distinction with an analogy.
“As I often say, it is like hiring a taxi driver to transport your luggage from your home to the market. Whether or not you eventually sell your goods at the market is not the driver’s concern. The driver’s responsibility is simply to get you there,” he said.
“That is the kind of arrangement we want to avoid. We need a partner that has a genuine stake in the success and sustainability of the refinery, rather than one whose involvement ends once it has been paid for its services.”
‘Some people will be unhappy’
Mr Ojulari also cautioned against what he described as misleading reports and comments about NNPC’s refinery strategy.
“Let me first say this, as I have said before: when you embark on a strategy of this nature, there will always be people who are unhappy with your decisions,” he said.
He said efforts to address leakages and protect Nigeria’s interests could affect some stakeholders, prompting opposition to the company’s strategy.
“When you take steps to stop certain leakages in the system and protect Nigeria’s interests, some people will inevitably be disadvantaged,” he said.
He added that some stakeholders could seek to undermine the refinery rehabilitation efforts because they believe the strategy could threaten their interests.
“When you come up with a formidable and credible solution, you are inevitably going against the interests of certain people who may resort to different tactics to frustrate your efforts,” he said.
Mr Ojulari urged Nigerians to scrutinise such claims rather than accepting them at face value.
“So, please, let us not take all these comments and reports at face value,” he said.
He also cited his 35 years of experience in the oil industry as part of the basis for his assessment of the companies and the refinery rehabilitation strategy.
“You cannot have someone like me, who has spent 35 years in the industry, travel to China, return to Nigeria and tell Nigerians that the companies building refineries should be asked to leave,” he said.
The NNPC boss said the company would continue to examine claims about the project and verify the credibility of those making them.
“We have conducted independent due diligence on the company,” he said. “When people begin to circulate misleading information, we must make an effort to identify the sources and establish the facts.”
Background
Nigeria has four state-run refineries, including two in Port Harcourt, which together form the Port Harcourt Refining Company, with a combined installed capacity of 210,000 barrels per day (bpd).
The Kaduna Refining and Petrochemical Company Limited has an installed capacity of 110,000 bpd, while the Warri Refining and Petrochemical Company Limited has an installed capacity of 125,000 bpd.
All four refineries have a combined installed capacity of 445,000 bpd.
Despite significant cash injections aimed at getting the plants to run optimally for many years, the refineries continue to grapple with operational constraints, with site visits revealing that most facilities are far from operating at peak levels.
READ ALSO: NNPC’s profit rose 33.3% to N7.2trn in 2025
The Warri Refinery, which reopened in December 2024, shut down in January due to safety issues. In May last year, NNPC announced an outage at the Port Harcourt Refinery, preparatory to scheduled maintenance.
In October last year, NNPC announced that it had initiated a comprehensive technical and commercial review of its three refineries to ensure optimal performance and sustainability.
The goal of the overhaul, according to NNPC, is to position the corporation for its big role as a supplier of petroleum products of last resort, as stipulated by the Petroleum Industry Act, while ensuring the efficient and profitable operation of the refineries.
During his remarks on Tuesday, Mr Ojulari said over 30 officials of the Chinese companies have come to assess the current situation of the refineries, and that they spent months in the country working on the project.
However, he reiterated that a final agreement has not been signed.
Nigeria has continued to seek strategic investors and technical partners for its state-owned refineries as part of efforts to reduce dependence on imported petroleum products and improve domestic refining capacity.
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