Connect with us

News

Starship’s path to reusability looks murky after SpaceX’s S-1

info

Published

on

Screenshot 2026 05 26 at 11.33.33 AM.png

SpaceX’s recent IPO and Starship rocket test flight delivered two big data points that offer a realistic vision for the coming years — and one that may disappoint both the company’s boosters and its critics.

Hidden behind the fantastic expectations for AI enterprise profits and plans for a Moon base is a more grounded reality: an expendable Starship could keep SpaceX in business, but doesn’t achieve the cost reductions — or frontier business models — Elon Musk is betting on.

SpaceX is many businesses, but right now only one is producing significant revenue. Starlink, its satellite communications network, is the tent-pole of the firm’s public offering. The top line is fairly incredible; SpaceX’s connectivity business generated $11.4 billion in revenue last year, the bulk of the company’s earnings.

But underneath, you can see the capital expenditure treadmill that scared previous entrepreneurs away from this model. SpaceX needs to replace about a fifth of its satellites every year just to maintain its current level of service. It has invested more in its satellite business ($11.4 billion) since the beginning of 2023 than it has building Starship and its launch infrastructure ($8.4 billion).

SpaceX’s S-1 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission predicts costs will continue growing, but expects that improvements to its technology will allow it to reduce them as a percentage of its revenue.

Musk has said that Starship is the key to keeping Starlink’s costs under control, even saying that SpaceX could go bankrupt without the vehicle’s ability to replace those satellites cheaply. In that context, a note that stood out in SpaceX’s S-1 was the first acknowledgment that full reusability of Starship isn’t necessary to launch the new generation of Starlink satellites. But without full reusability, the cost will go up, making the business less attractive.

“If this reusability is not achieved then the cost of launch on Starship may not be much lower than Falcon 9, even if the full 100 ton capability is realized (which is by no means a foregone conclusion),” satellite market analyst Tim Farrar wrote in a note to clients last week. “The cost per launch may be as much as $100M (i.e. $1000 per kg) while tempo remains constrained by the rate at which second stages can be manufactured and first stages can be refurbished.”

Last week’s test flight of the third version of Starship and its booster bore those concerns out. The newest rocket’s maiden flight saw issues with a key capability for reusability — relighting the Raptor rocket engines on both the booster and Starship in order to make a controlled return to the Earth. Starship did, however, deploy a set of dummy satellites and two test vehicles in space.

That helps square SpaceX’s prediction that it will begin launching a new generation of higher-throughput Starlink satellites 60 at a time, a twenty-fold increase in capacity compared to a single Falcon 9 launch, later this year. At first glance a classic example of Musk’s timelines, it may actually be an expectation that initial launches will expend the Starship. If so, SpaceX might not be able to count on as much free satellite cash as expected, and its plans to launch space data centers will become untenable until the rocket is reusable.

At the same time, SpaceX’s S-1 shows that Starlink’s growth is slowing.

SpaceX’s total addressable market calculation is based on its ability to offer service to every fixed-broadband subscriber or mobile handset in the world. That’s unlikely though because Starlink isn’t competing on price with terrestrial fiber. The rest of the document suggests SpaceX continues to see direct-to-device as a complement, rather than a replacement, for terrestrial mobile providers.

Starlink has just over 10 million subscribers, more than any other satellite communications network. But Farrar notes the rate of user growth fell over the course of the first quarter of 2026. Quilty Space, a space consulting firm, projected earlier this year that SpaceX would end the year with 16.8 million subscribers. That would require the company’s quarterly growth rate to roughly double from where it is now, which may be difficult after recent price increases.

Growth matters for SpaceX because its new Starlink users are paying less than previous ones. Starlink’s average revenue per user has fallen from $99 in 2023 to $66 in the first quarter of 2026 — a change propelled by its expansion into new international markets where it can’t charge as much as it does in developed economies. Without a fast-growing user base, each new satellite launched is making less money.

Increased competition also threatens Starlink. Amazon’s Leo network is approaching the scale required to put pressure on SpaceX, although it is waiting for the Federal Communications Commission to extend a deadline that requires it to launch 1,600 internet satellites by July.

Data in the SpaceX filing presents a gloomy growth forecast for the company as well as rivals like Blue Origin. Farrar says that if SpaceX — much further ahead than any other company — is seeing slowing demand, that may signal the market for space broadband is smaller than the players anticipated.

When you purchase through links in our articles, we may earn a small commission. This doesn’t affect our editorial independence.

Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

News

‘Africa Deserved Better’ — Engr. Samuel Jackson Laments Heartbreaking Exit of Egypt, Senegal, as Continent Wins Global Respect

info

Published

on

By

WhatsApp Image 2026 07 07 at 7.56.26 PM.jpeg

The President of the Nigeria Armwrestling Federation, Engr. Samuel Jackson, has expressed deep disappointment over the elimination of Africa’s leading representatives at the ongoing FIFA World Cup, describing the exits of Egypt, Senegal, South Africa, Ghana, DR Congo, Ivory Coast, Algeria and Cape Verde as heartbreaking despite their outstanding performances.

Jackson said the tournament has proved beyond doubt that African football has reached a new level, with the continent producing some of the most exciting performances of the competition.

Read Also: World Cup Exits Expose Africa’s Biggest Weakness, Says Ex-Super Eagles Star Paul Okoku | Sports247 Nigeria

His biggest praise went to Egypt, who came within minutes of eliminating defending champions Argentina before suffering a dramatic 3-2 defeat after leading 2-0 late in the game. He described the result as cruel, insisting the Pharaohs deserved more for their courage and quality.

“My heart goes out to Egypt. They showed the world that African football has matured. To push the world champions to the edge of elimination is no small achievement. They may be out, but they have won the admiration of millions.”

He also commended South Africa, whose return to the World Cup after years away ended with a narrow defeat to Canada, describing Bafana Bafana’s campaign as one that has restored belief in Southern African football.

Jackson reserved special praise for Senegal, saying the Teranga Lions once again demonstrated why they remain one of Africa’s football giants despite their narrow knockout defeat to Belgium.

He equally applauded Cape Verde, making its World Cup debut, for taking Argentina into extra time before bowing out in one of the tournament’s most thrilling encounters, while Ghana, Ivory Coast, DR Congo and Algeria were praised for reaching the knockout rounds and competing fearlessly against some of the world’s biggest football nations.

“Africa may not have reached the quarter-finals in the numbers we hoped for, but this World Cup belongs to Africa as much as anyone. Our teams have changed the narrative. The world now respects African football because our players competed with courage, discipline and confidence.”

Jackson added that the performances should encourage African governments, corporate organisations and sports administrators to invest more in grassroots sports, noting that with sustained support, African nations can soon produce a FIFA World Cup champion.

“Africa’s future is bright. Today’s disappointment will become tomorrow’s triumph if we continue to invest in our athletes and believe in their potential.”

Continue Reading

Health

Medical academics give FG 21-day ultimatum, threaten indefinite strike

info

Published

on

By

Untitled design 50.jpg

The Nigerian Association of Medical and Dental Academics (NAMDA) has given the federal government 21 days to address outstanding salary and welfare issues or face a nationwide indefinite strike.

The association’s President, Nosa Orhue, announced the ultimatum on Tuesday in Abuja after a meeting of the union’s National Executive Council (NEC).

Mr Orhue said the government must conclude negotiations within the next 21 days, warning that the union would reconvene after the deadline to decide its next course of action if there was no meaningful progress.

According to him, the association had engaged government through dialogue for more than 24 months without meaningful progress.

Mr Orhue said the association was dissatisfied that negotiations on the renegotiation of the 2009 agreement had remained stalled since 9 April, in spite of repeated engagements.

PT WHATSAPP CHANNEL

He alleged that while improved welfare packages had been implemented for other university unions, NAMDA members remained excluded, resulting in non-payment of earned academic and professorial allowances and worsening brain drain among medical academics.

The NAMDA president attributed the dispute largely to salary disparities between university-based medical lecturers and hospital consultants performing identical professional duties.

He explained that medical academics combine teaching, research and clinical responsibilities, including patient care, surgeries and hospital administration.

According to him, they earn less than their counterparts in the hospital system despite maintaining the same professional qualifications and practising licences.

Mr Orhue said the federal government had previously recognised the unique status of medical academics through their placement on the Consolidated Medical Salary Structure (CONMESS). He added that the Minister of Education, Tunji Alausa, had supported salary parity and communicated the position to the National Salaries, Incomes and Wages Commission.

He, however, alleged that some government agencies were frustrating implementation of the agreement.

Mr Orhue reaffirmed that CONMESS remained the only acceptable salary framework for medical and dental academics.

He warned that any attempt to replace it with another structure could trigger industrial action.

He also rejected what he described as the forced migration of members above 65 years from CONMESS to the Consolidated University Academic Salary Structure (CONUASS).

READ ALSO: NARD backs LAUTECH doctors, warns of indefinite strike

According to him, the move amounts to a demotion and results in financial losses for affected academics.

He said the association was also demanding implementation of special pension benefits for retired hospital-based academics and opposed the National Universities Commission’s requirement for medical academics to obtain PhD qualifications.

In spite of the dispute, Mr Orhue commended President Bola Tinubu’s administration for efforts to improve university education and hailed the Minister of Education for supporting salary parity for medical academics.

He also lauded the federal government’s preparedness for a possible Ebola outbreak and pledged the association’s support toward strengthening the country’s public health response.

(NAN)


Continue Reading

Trending