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Starship’s path to reusability looks murky after SpaceX’s S-1

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SpaceX’s recent IPO and Starship rocket test flight delivered two big data points that offer a realistic vision for the coming years — and one that may disappoint both the company’s boosters and its critics.

Hidden behind the fantastic expectations for AI enterprise profits and plans for a Moon base is a more grounded reality: an expendable Starship could keep SpaceX in business, but doesn’t achieve the cost reductions — or frontier business models — Elon Musk is betting on.

SpaceX is many businesses, but right now only one is producing significant revenue. Starlink, its satellite communications network, is the tent-pole of the firm’s public offering. The top line is fairly incredible; SpaceX’s connectivity business generated $11.4 billion in revenue last year, the bulk of the company’s earnings.

But underneath, you can see the capital expenditure treadmill that scared previous entrepreneurs away from this model. SpaceX needs to replace about a fifth of its satellites every year just to maintain its current level of service. It has invested more in its satellite business ($11.4 billion) since the beginning of 2023 than it has building Starship and its launch infrastructure ($8.4 billion).

SpaceX’s S-1 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission predicts costs will continue growing, but expects that improvements to its technology will allow it to reduce them as a percentage of its revenue.

Musk has said that Starship is the key to keeping Starlink’s costs under control, even saying that SpaceX could go bankrupt without the vehicle’s ability to replace those satellites cheaply. In that context, a note that stood out in SpaceX’s S-1 was the first acknowledgment that full reusability of Starship isn’t necessary to launch the new generation of Starlink satellites. But without full reusability, the cost will go up, making the business less attractive.

“If this reusability is not achieved then the cost of launch on Starship may not be much lower than Falcon 9, even if the full 100 ton capability is realized (which is by no means a foregone conclusion),” satellite market analyst Tim Farrar wrote in a note to clients last week. “The cost per launch may be as much as $100M (i.e. $1000 per kg) while tempo remains constrained by the rate at which second stages can be manufactured and first stages can be refurbished.”

Last week’s test flight of the third version of Starship and its booster bore those concerns out. The newest rocket’s maiden flight saw issues with a key capability for reusability — relighting the Raptor rocket engines on both the booster and Starship in order to make a controlled return to the Earth. Starship did, however, deploy a set of dummy satellites and two test vehicles in space.

That helps square SpaceX’s prediction that it will begin launching a new generation of higher-throughput Starlink satellites 60 at a time, a twenty-fold increase in capacity compared to a single Falcon 9 launch, later this year. At first glance a classic example of Musk’s timelines, it may actually be an expectation that initial launches will expend the Starship. If so, SpaceX might not be able to count on as much free satellite cash as expected, and its plans to launch space data centers will become untenable until the rocket is reusable.

At the same time, SpaceX’s S-1 shows that Starlink’s growth is slowing.

SpaceX’s total addressable market calculation is based on its ability to offer service to every fixed-broadband subscriber or mobile handset in the world. That’s unlikely though because Starlink isn’t competing on price with terrestrial fiber. The rest of the document suggests SpaceX continues to see direct-to-device as a complement, rather than a replacement, for terrestrial mobile providers.

Starlink has just over 10 million subscribers, more than any other satellite communications network. But Farrar notes the rate of user growth fell over the course of the first quarter of 2026. Quilty Space, a space consulting firm, projected earlier this year that SpaceX would end the year with 16.8 million subscribers. That would require the company’s quarterly growth rate to roughly double from where it is now, which may be difficult after recent price increases.

Growth matters for SpaceX because its new Starlink users are paying less than previous ones. Starlink’s average revenue per user has fallen from $99 in 2023 to $66 in the first quarter of 2026 — a change propelled by its expansion into new international markets where it can’t charge as much as it does in developed economies. Without a fast-growing user base, each new satellite launched is making less money.

Increased competition also threatens Starlink. Amazon’s Leo network is approaching the scale required to put pressure on SpaceX, although it is waiting for the Federal Communications Commission to extend a deadline that requires it to launch 1,600 internet satellites by July.

Data in the SpaceX filing presents a gloomy growth forecast for the company as well as rivals like Blue Origin. Farrar says that if SpaceX — much further ahead than any other company — is seeing slowing demand, that may signal the market for space broadband is smaller than the players anticipated.

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NiMet ​‌⁠​‍‍⁠⁠‌‍​‍‍‍​‌​‌​forecasts three-day cloudiness, sunshine nationwide from Monday 

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The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) has predicted cloudy and sunny weather conditions across the country from Monday to Wednesday.

NiMet’s weather outlook released in Abuja on Sunday forecast sunny skies with patches of clouds over the northern region on Monday.

The agency predicted thunderstorms accompanied by moderate rains over parts of Taraba, Adamawa and Kaduna states during the morning hours.

It also forecast thunderstorms with moderate rains over parts of Borno, Bauchi, Gombe, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Kaduna, Adamawa and Taraba states in the afternoon or evening.

For the North-Central region, NiMet predicted thunderstorms accompanied by moderate rains over parts of Plateau, Niger, Nasarawa and the Federal Capital Territory during the morning hours.

It forecast thunderstorms with moderate rains over parts of Kogi, Benue, Plateau, Niger, Nasarawa states and the FCT later in the day.

According to NiMet, moderate rains are expected over parts of Ondo, Ogun, Cross River, Akwa Ibom, Rivers, Lagos and Bayelsa states in the morning.

It forecast moderate rains across the entire southern region later in the day.

For Tuesday, NiMet predicted thunderstorms accompanied by moderate rains over parts of Zamfara, Sokoto, Kebbi, Adamawa and Taraba states in the northern region during the morning hours.

The agency forecast thunderstorms with moderate rains over parts of Borno, Jigawa, Yobe, Bauchi, Gombe, Kano, Katsina, Kaduna, Taraba and Adamawa states later in the day.

He stated, “For the North-Central region, thunderstorms accompanied by moderate rains are expected over parts of Niger, Kwara states and the Federal Capital Territory in the morning hours.

“Later during the afternoon or evening hours, thunderstorms with moderate rains are anticipated across the region.”

For the southern region, NiMet forecast light rains over parts of Cross River, Delta, Bayelsa, Akwa Ibom, Lagos and Rivers states during the morning hours.

It anticipated thunderstorms with moderate rains across the entire region later in the day.

The agency predicted partly cloudy skies over the northern region on Wednesday, with chances of thunderstorms accompanied by light rains over parts of Bauchi, Jigawa and Yobe states during the morning hours.

It forecast thunderstorms with moderate rains across the region during the afternoon and evening hours.

NiMet also predicted sunny skies with patches of clouds over the North Central region during the morning hours.

“Thunderstorms with moderate rains are expected over the entire region later in the day. For the southern region, a cloudy atmosphere is expected over the region, with prospects of light rains over parts of Edo, Cross River, Delta, Bayelsa, Akwa Ibom and Rivers states during the morning hours,” it said.

NiMet anticipated thunderstorms with moderate rains over the entire region later in the day.

The agency urged the public to take adequate precautions and fasten loose objects to prevent collisions, as strong winds might precede rains in areas where thunderstorms are likely to occur.

It warned that continuous rains expected over coastal areas of the South could trigger flash floods.

“Drivers should avoid driving or wading through flood waters. Driving under heavy rain should be avoided.

“Disconnect electrical appliances from electrical sockets. Stay away from tall trees to avoid impact from falling branches and broken trees,” it advised.

NiMet advised airline operators to obtain airport specific weather reports from the agency for effective planning of their operations.

It also urged citizens to stay informed through its weather updates and visit its website, www.nimet.gov.ng, for more information.

(NAN)

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Tobi Amusan Wins 100m Hurdles at Grand Prix Brescia

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Nigerian sprint hurdler Tobi Amusan continued her impressive campaign with victory in the women’s 100m hurdles at the Grand Prix Brescia in Italy.

Sports247 reports that Amusan clocked 12.56 seconds to take the top spot despite competing into a stiff -1.7m/s headwind, producing a strong performance under challenging conditions.

The Nigerian was pushed by American hurdler Alaysha Johnson, who finished second in 12.62 seconds, while Jamaica’s Ackera Nugent completed the podium after crossing the line in 12.75 seconds.

Amusan’s winning performance underlines her consistency and competitive strength in an event where margins are often decided by hundredths of a second. Her 12.56s was six hundredths faster than Johnson and 19 hundredths ahead of Nugent.

The adverse wind conditions made the achievement even more notable, with the -1.7m/s headwind presenting an additional challenge for all three athletes.

For Amusan, the Brescia victory provides another valuable competitive outing as she continues to build momentum in the 100m hurdles.

The Nigerian has established herself among the world’s leading hurdlers, and performances such as this further reinforce her status as one of Africa’s premier track and field athletes.

Johnson’s 12.62s earned her a strong second-place finish, while Nugent’s 12.75s secured third as the leading trio separated themselves from the rest of the field.

With the season progressing, Amusan’s ability to produce a 12.56s winning time against a significant headwind will provide encouragement ahead of her next assignments.

The victory also adds another international success to the Nigerian star’s résumé, keeping her firmly in the spotlight as the global women’s hurdles season gathers pace.

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