The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has said the United States’ decision to impose a 12.5 per cent tariff on imports from Nigeria is unlikely to have a significant impact on Nigeria’s economy.

The think tank disclosed this in a statement by its Chief Executive Officer, Muda Yusuf, on Sunday, citing the dominance of tariff-exempt petroleum exports and the relatively small share of Nigerian exports destined for the US.

On Friday, the United States announced a plan to impose a 12.5 per cent tariff on imports from Nigeria.

The US government said the decision is part of a new trade measure targeting countries that have failed to prohibit the importation of goods produced with forced labour.

CPPE said the tariff is part of a broader policy shift by the United States aimed at protecting domestic industries and strengthening manufacturing competitiveness.

According to the think tank, the new tariff regime is a continuation of the reciprocal tariff policy introduced under US President Donald Trump, though it is now implemented under a different legal framework.

“CPPE’s assessment is that the new tariff regime represents a continuation of the Trump administration’s reciprocal tariff policy, albeit under a different legal framework.

“Following the judicial invalidation of the earlier reciprocal tariffs, the current measures appear to have been restructured under Section 301 of the U.S. Trade Act, with allegations relating to forced labour providing the statutory basis for their implementation,” CPPE said.

It added that although the legal basis has changed, the policy objective remains to essentially protect US domestic industries, strengthen American manufacturing competitiveness and advance broader US trade and economic interests.

Impact on Nigeria

The body said the direct economic implications for Nigeria would be limited because most of the country’s exports to the United States are petroleum products, which are exempt from the tariffs.

“Nigeria’s exports to the United States are heavily concentrated in crude oil, liquefied natural gas and other petroleum products, which account for more than 80 per cent of Nigeria’s merchandise exports to the US.

“These products have been exempted from the tariff measures, leaving the bulk of Nigeria’s exports unaffected,” the agency said.

CPPE also stated that the United States is not Nigeria’s largest export destination, noting that Nigeria’s first-quarter 2026 merchandise trade data showed that exports to the US accounted for only 5.56 per cent of total exports valued at about N21.6 trillion.

By comparison, India accounted for 13.09 per cent of Nigeria’s exports during the period, followed by France with 9.29 per cent, the Netherlands with 9.22 per cent and Spain with 7.68 per cent, placing the United States as the country’s fifth-largest export market.

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According to CPPE, these trade patterns reduce Nigeria’s exposure to the new tariff measures, noting that they will only have modest impacts on Nigeria’s export earnings, foreign exchange receipts and macroeconomic performance.

“While some non-oil exporters, particularly in agriculture and manufacturing, may experience reduced competitiveness in the U.S. market, the overall impact on Nigeria’s export earnings, foreign exchange receipts and macroeconomic performance is expected to be modest,” the body said.

The group added that the development reflects a broader shift in global trade towards protectionism and greater use of trade policy to advance domestic economic objectives.

Solution

CPPE urged Nigeria to accelerate export diversification, improve manufacturing competitiveness, deepen domestic value addition and maximise opportunities under the African Continental Free Trade Area.

It also called on the government to strengthen labour standards, improve supply chain transparency and engage the United States through diplomatic and trade channels to minimise the impact of the measures on affected exporters.

CPPE said the greater challenge for Nigeria lies in navigating an increasingly fragmented and protectionist global trading environment, rather than immediate export challenges.

“Overall, while the new US tariffs have generated understandable concern, their direct economic implications for Nigeria should not be overstated.

“The greater challenge lies not in the immediate loss of export opportunities, but in navigating an increasingly fragmented and protectionist global trading environment,” the think tank said.