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IMF Revises Nigeria’s 2026 Growth Forecast Downward to 4.1%

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered Nigeria’s economic growth projection for 2026 to 4.1 per cent as the economic consequences of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East continue to take a toll.

The updated forecast was revealed during the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings held in Washington, D.C., where officials cautioned that energy and supply chain disruptions caused by the war are weakening economic recovery across the region.

IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas explained that the downgrade highlights the wider challenges confronting countries that rely heavily on imported energy.

“For Sub-Saharan Africa, we are observing a downward revision in growth and a rise in inflation in several countries within the region,” Gourinchas stated. “The effects are largely consistent with what we are witnessing globally, particularly for nations that depend on energy imports.”

He further noted that the Fund is actively engaging with several countries to assess their needs under the current circumstances and is working closely with the International Energy Agency and the World Bank to address disruptions in the energy market.

Also speaking on the issue, Denz Igan, Chief of the IMF Research Department’s World Economic Studies Division, said the 0.3 percentage point reduction reflects multiple economic pressures.

“Higher costs of fuel and fertiliser caused by the war, along with increased shipping expenses, are expected to slow non-oil economic activities in Nigeria,” Igan said. “Although rising oil prices provide some support, the overall outlook points to slower growth in 2026, with a projected improvement in 2027.”

The IMF also forecasts that median inflation across Sub-Saharan Africa will increase from 3.4 per cent in 2025 to 5 per cent in 2026, driven by elevated oil and fertiliser prices, possible fuel supply shortages, and rising operational costs.

Regarding Nigeria, she emphasised that maintaining a tight monetary policy will be essential for meeting the inflation target set by the central bank.

Additionally, the IMF pointed out that bilateral aid to Sub-Saharan Africa declined by 16 to 20 per cent in 2025, removing an important financial cushion at a time when commodity and shipping costs are surging.

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How Enugu Auto Dealer Chukwuebuka Ogbonna Allegedly Pocketed ₦15.4m Meant for Importation

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The Enugu Zonal Directorate of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) has arraigned Chukwuebuka Anacletus Ogbonna before Justice Vincent C. Ezeugwu of the Enugu State High Court, sitting in Independence Layout, Enugu. Ogbonna, who operates under the name and style of Monpere’s Autos, faces a four-count charge bordering on stealing by conversion to the tune of ₦15,400,000.

The trouble began for the auto dealer following a petition from a buyer who claimed he paid Ogbonna the ₦15.4 million in October 2023 to assist him in importing three cars. Upon receiving the substantial sum, the defendant promised to deliver the vehicles on or before Christmas Day, December 25, 2023. However, instead of delivering the cars or returning the money, Ogbonna allegedly converted the funds to his personal use, leaving the buyer stranded.

The court charges detailed how the money was systematically diverted. Count one states that in September 2023, within the jurisdiction of the High Court of Enugu State, Ogbonna fraudulently converted ₦4,000,000 belonging to Mr. Paulson Nwakoby, which was meant for the vehicle purchase. Count two details another ₦4,000,000 fraudulently converted between November 28 and December 10, 2023. These actions violate Section 342 of the Criminal Code Law, Cap 30, Enugu State, and are punishable under Section 353 (1) of the same law.

Appearing in court, the defendant pleaded “not guilty” to all charges read to him. In view of the plea, EFCC counsel and Assistant Commander of the EFCC, ACE II Rotimi Ajobiewe, prayed the court for a definitive trial date and requested that the defendant be remanded in the custody of the Nigerian Correctional Service (NCoS) in Enugu. Justice Ezeugwu subsequently adjourned the matter to July 16, 2026, for the hearing of the bail application and ordered that Ogbonna be remanded at the EFCC’s holding facility in the interim.

The post How Enugu Auto Dealer Chukwuebuka Ogbonna Allegedly Pocketed ₦15.4m Meant for Importation appeared first on Business Today NG.

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Academics, economists, others discuss African development at AFEA 2026 conference

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Policy experts, academics, and researchers have stated that strong public policy implementation and debt management can drive good governance in Africa.

They made these remarks during the just-concluded African Finance and Economics (AFEA) 2026 conference, held in Abuja from 3 to 5 July. 

Speaking to PREMIUM TIMES, Evans Osabuohein, a professor of economics, said that the discussions at the event focused on public policy and debt management, which are affecting human capital development in Africa.

“It [is] about how public debt can be managed more efficiently in Africa, so that we can tap into the resources for human capital and energy efficiency in this age of innovation. We need human resources that are well-skilled, equipped, and knowledgeable to harness such potential that technology like artificial intelligence present today,” he said.

“Debt is not bad in itself; the issue is when debt is borrowed but is not used for capital investment, the servicing of debt becomes a burden. We have seen this in most African countries where some of the borrowings are not geared towards human capital development.”

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Mr Osabuohein, a board member of AFEA, explained that it would be a win-win option for both governments and citizens if public debt is used judiciously, saying that the execution of projects translates into employing the populace to do the labour.

More details

The three-day international conference, hosted by Nile University Abuja’s faculty of arts and social sciences, brought together scholars, policymakers, and industry experts in the field of economics.

A collage of AFEA and Nile University Abuja logos
A collage of AFEA and Nile University Abuja logos

Themed ‘Africa’s Geoeconomic Development Agenda in a Global Realignment Era’, it sought to contribute expert input on shifting geopolitics, climate risk, and development finance across the continent, and drew attendees from Canada, Ghana, Nigeria, and other countries.

Emotimo Agama, director-general of the Securities and Exchanges Commission (SEC); Tope Fasua, an economic adviser to President Bola Tinubu; Tony Okpanachi, managing director of the Development Bank of Nigeria, among others, made up the line-up of dignitaries for the event.

Premium Times monitored breakout sessions at the programme, where participants presented papers on topics including debt sustainability, global financial and health governance systems, digital service delivery, mobile money, financial inclusion, and continental digital markets.

Some sessions also focused on youth, gender, demographic change, and inclusive development; as well as migration, urbanisation, and spatial inequality, with a broad focus on Africa-West relations.

The sessions featured interactive discussions for each paper presenter, including how their research work could be further enhanced.

Participants speak

Abogede Marietu, a PhD candidate of economics at Nile University, described the conference as impactful, adding that it has given her opportunities to learn from scholars in her field.

Participants exchanging ideas at one of the sessions at the conference. (PHOTO CREDIT: Mohammed Taoheed/Premium Times)
Participants exchanging ideas at one of the sessions at the conference. (PHOTO CREDIT: Mohammed Taoheed/Premium Times)

“Today is actually my first time presenting my work at an international conference, and I think that gives visibility to my work. I have also got to learn from other presenters.”

“It is my earnest desire that the government in Africa would look into the policies that myself and other presenters have come up with, so as to improve the economy, and also aid the livelihood of the citizens of the continent,” she said.

READ ALSO: Africa must act before deep-sea mining becomes a new battleground

Another paper presenter, Ropheka Bot, stated that she found the discussions in the conference “very timely and engaging as experts gathered to discuss current global issues”

Mrs Bot, a lecturer at Bingham University, Karu, said she hopes that governments in Africa would implement some of their research findings to improve development on the continent.

About AFEA

The African Finance and Economics Association (AFEA) is a professional forum for academics and practitioners (government and industry) of finance, economics, and related disciplines interested in the development of Africa.

It seeks to empower the continent through financial growth and sustainable development, with a mission to promote the exchange of information and ideas among professionals and stakeholders in the field while fostering research that advances knowledge on contemporary African development issues.

With Majune Socrates as its president, Gbadebo Odularu sits as the chairman of the board for the organisation.


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