Yiaga Africa has confirmed that the Independent National Electoral Commission’s, INEC, official results for the 2026 Ekiti State governorship election align with its own independent tally, but the group raised red flags over widespread vote buying and inconsistencies in voter turnout data.

Speaking in Ado-Ekiti on Sunday, the election observer group said its Process and Results Verification for Transparency, PRVT, methodology showed that INEC’s declared results matched ballots counted at polling units.

Yiaga Africa commended INEC for improvements in logistics and conduct, including early deployment of materials and personnel, prompt accreditation and voting, and a generally peaceful atmosphere across the state.

However, the group highlighted key concerns: rampant voter inducement, weak management of sensitive materials, poor public communication on late administrative and judicial decisions, and turnout figures that don’t add up.

“The numbers: Yiaga’s statistical projections estimated the All Progressives Congress (APC) at 83.9–87.1% of votes, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) at 8.5–11.7%, and the African Democratic Congress (ADC) at 2.9–4.1%. All fell within INEC’s announced results.

“The turnout gap: Yiaga’s estimated turnout was 34.1–38.2%, while INEC announced 38.7%. Yiaga noted INEC appeared to use the 2022 registered voters figure instead of the updated 2026 register.

Yiaga recommended that “INEC should clarify the turnout discrepancy and tighten quality control for sensitive materials ahead of future polls, including the 2027 general elections.

“Security agencies need to crack down harder on vote buying and voter intimidation.

“Political parties must better train polling agents on electoral laws and guidelines.

“Regulating incumbency powers and the use of state resources is critical to ensure fair competition.

“Yiaga Africa stressed that while election administration has improved, vote buying and management lapses remain serious threats to Nigeria’s electoral integrity.”

The recent judgment of the Plateau State High Court recognizing Fatima Baba Akawu as an indigene of Jos North Local Government Area has reopened one of the most contentious and long-standing debates in Plateau State — the question of who qualifies as an indigene of Jos. While the ruling has sparked intense reactions across ethnic, political and religious divides, attention has increasingly shifted to the findings of the Justice Niki Tobi Judicial Commission of Inquiry, widely regarded as one of the most authoritative examinations of the historical roots of the Jos indigeneity question.

Established in the aftermath of the September 2001 Jos crisis, the commission was mandated to investigate the causes of the violence that claimed hundreds of lives and caused widespread destruction. In the course of its work, the panel reviewed historical records, colonial archives and testimonies from traditional rulers, historians, community leaders and various ethnic groups. One of its central conclusions was that the area now known as Jos was inhabited long before colonial rule and the advent of tin mining. According to the commission, the Berom, Afizere and Anaguta communities exercised traditional authority over the area and constitute the indigenous populations of Jos.

The commission rejected claims that Jos was founded by migrant communities or developed on previously unoccupied land, arguing instead that colonial expansion transformed an already existing indigenous settlement into a modern urban centre. While acknowledging the significant contributions of Hausa, Fulani, Igbo, Yoruba, Tiv, Nupe and other migrant communities to the growth of Jos, the report maintained that economic and social contributions did not alter the historical ownership of the land. It further drew a distinction between citizenship, residence and indigeneity, emphasizing that indigene status within Nigeria’s administrative framework has traditionally been linked to ancestry and historical origin rather than duration of residence.

The debate has gained renewed momentum following Justice C. Donglong’s June 2026 ruling, which held that Fatima Baba Akawu, a Hausa woman born and raised in Jos North, was entitled to an indigene certificate based on her father’s status and circumstances of birth. The judgment also declared the issuance of residential certificates as an alternative to indigene certificates unlawful. While former Governor Jonah Jang and other stakeholders have argued that indigeneity must remain tied to historically recognized indigenous communities, Islamic scholar Sheikh Sani Yahaya Jingir has maintained that generations of residence and contribution to the development of Jos should be considered in determining belonging. As appeals loom and public debate intensifies, the Niki Tobi Commission’s findings remain a key reference point in discussions about identity, citizenship, indigeneity and peaceful coexistence in one of Nigeria’s most diverse cities.