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Fuel subsidy would cost Nigeria over N20trn yearly — Minister

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The Federal Government has rejected calls for the return of petrol subsidy, warning that subsidising fuel could cost the country more than N20 trillion annually and ultimately make petrol more expensive.

The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, disclosed this on Thursday during a press briefing in Abuja on rising petrol prices and the subsidy debate.

Mr Oyedele said Nigeria consumes about 50 million litres of petrol daily, meaning that returning petrol to its pre-2023 reform price would cost more than N20 trillion every year.

He said even a proposal to sell petrol at N500 per litre would cost the government more than N16 trillion annually, before accounting for increased consumption and smuggling.

“Amounts of that size are nearly everything the Federation Account shared among all three tiers of government in 2025,” Mr Oyedele said.

He warned that funding such a subsidy would come at the expense of other government responsibilities, including salaries, pensions, schools, hospitals and security.

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The minister’s comment comes amid renewed calls for the reintroduction of fuel subsidy, with the issue increasingly featuring in political debates ahead of the 2027 general elections.

‘Subsidy could push petrol to N2,000 per litre’

According to the minister, a return to subsidy could weaken government revenues, trigger a sovereign credit downgrade, increase borrowing costs and put pressure on foreign reserves and the naira.

The government estimates that the exchange rate could approach N3,000 to the dollar within months if subsidy is restored.

Mr Oyedele said this could push the price of so-called subsidised petrol to at least ₦2,000 per litre, significantly above the current average of about ₦1,400.

“A subsidy does not lower the cost of fuel. It only changes how it is paid, and when,” he said.

He argued that crude oil, freight and refining inputs are largely priced in dollars, meaning that forcing down the naira price of petrol would effectively require the government to subsidise foreign exchange.

‘Production subsidy’ is consumption subsidy

The minister also rejected descriptions of a proposed subsidy for locally refined petrol as a “production subsidy”.

He said a genuine production subsidy would support producers who could not compete at market prices, whereas the proposal being discussed would amount to providing discounted crude that would eventually be passed on to consumers at the pump.

“This is different, it is a discount on crude, passed through to the pump. That is a consumption subsidy by another route, with the same bill attached,” he said.

Mr Oyedele said subsidised fuel would also increase the price differential between Nigeria and neighbouring countries, potentially encouraging smuggling and effectively making Nigerian taxpayers subsidise motorists in other countries.

N15.8trn saved from subsidy removal

The minister defended the 2023 removal of petrol subsidy, saying it had released N15.8 trillion to the Federation Account between June 2023 and December 2025.

Of that amount, N10.4 trillion went to states and local governments, he said.

Mr Oyedele said 27 states could not reliably pay salaries in May 2023, but that none was in that position at the time of the briefing.

At the federal level, he said about two-thirds of the subsidy savings, combined with additional independent revenue and borrowing, had been used for spending that directly benefited Nigerians through higher wages, infrastructure, electricity subsidy and social transfers.

The remaining funds, he said, were used to stabilise the economy, particularly as the cost of servicing debt increased due to higher interest rates introduced to tackle inflation.

Government rejects blanket subsidy

Mr Oyedele said the government had instead used tax and duty waivers, local refining, naira-for-crude arrangements, exchange-rate stabilisation and CNG deployment to moderate fuel costs.

He said the government had granted a full waiver of taxes and duties on petrol worth more than N3.3 trillion for the year to 30 September 2026.

He added that the government would continue to consider targeted relief rather than a blanket subsidy.

Among the new measures are a 30-day discount on petrol sold at NNPC stations, a proposed N1,350 ceiling on the ex-gantry or landing cost of petrol, additional cash transfers, subsidised credit and faster CNG deployment.

READ ALSO: NNPCL: Accounting for fuel subsidy, By Uddin Ifeanyi

The government is also considering an excess profit tax on energy operators, with proceeds earmarked for measures to cushion vulnerable consumers.

Mr Oyedele said the government would not reverse the subsidy reform, arguing that doing so would expose Nigeria to the same cycle of fuel scarcity, smuggling, currency weakness and fiscal pressure experienced in the past.

“Our task is not to reverse a necessary reform designed to set our country on the path towards sustained prosperity,” he said. “It is to make sure its gains reach more Nigerians, more quickly and in more tangible ways.”


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Nigeria Customs Showcases Smart Digital Transformation Journey At 2026 WCO Global Event

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The Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) has unveiled its ongoing digital transformation journey at the World Customs Organisation (WCO) Smart Customs Project Global Event 2026.

The event which was held at the WCO Headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, from 29 to 30 October 2026.

The Service was represented by Assistant Comptroller (AC) Omolara Adedeji, who presented Nigeria’s experience and progress towards building a technology-driven Customs administration.

The global event brought together Customs administrations, technology experts and international stakeholders to examine the application of disruptive technologies in strengthening Customs operations, improving border management and facilitating legitimate international trade.

The opening ceremony featured remarks by the Deputy Secretary General of the WCO, Mr Ricardo Treviño Chapa. Ms Xueyan Guo, Director General of the International Cooperation Department, General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China (GACC), and Mr Eduard Hakobyan, Chairman of the State Revenue Committee of Armenia, also delivered keynote addresses.

A major highlight of the first day’s programme was the formal launch and presentation of the updated WCO Study Report on Disruptive Technologies, which examined the report’s evolution, key findings, and relevance to WCO Members.

The session also featured presentations from Customs administrations that contributed case studies to the updated report, including Nigeria, represented by AC Adedeji, as well as officials from the General Administration of Customs of China and the Mauritius Revenue Authority.

In her presentation titled “Nigeria Customs Service: The Journey Towards Smart Customs,” AC Adedeji outlined the Service’s transition from traditional Customs operations, characterised by manual processes, towards integrated digital operations under its Modernisation Project.

She highlighted the development and deployment of B’Odogwu, the Unified Customs Management System (UCMS), as a significant component of the transformation, supporting increased automation, electronic processing, data-driven decision-making and stronger collaboration with government Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs) and private-sector stakeholders.

According to her, “The NCS is undergoing a deliberate transition from traditional Customs operations towards integrated digital operations.
Through the Service’s Modernisation Project, we are strengthening automation, electronic processing and data-driven decision-making to build a more efficient, responsive and technology-driven Customs administration.”

She further identified smart technology and smart data as the two major components of Nigeria’s Smart Customs vision, explaining that while the former encompasses automation, integrated systems, digital platforms and modern ICT infrastructure, the latter focuses on intelligence-led interventions, data-driven risk management, analytics and improved information sharing.

The presentation also emphasised the Service’s strategic commitment to developing the human capacity required to sustain its digital transformation, particularly through upskilling personnel and building a workforce with the technical competence to drive innovation and deliver its Smart Customs vision.

AC Adedeji further highlighted the application of geospatial technology across different operational areas of the Service, including fleet management, asset management and the Electronic Cargo Tracking System (ECTS), demonstrating how technology is being deployed beyond Customs declarations to strengthen operational monitoring, resource management and cargo visibility.

She noted that the Service’s transformation was moving beyond basic process automation towards intelligent Customs operations, with priority areas including Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning, predictive analytics, non-intrusive inspection, integrated border management, interoperability and real-time operational intelligence.

As she explained, “By prioritising these technologies and investing in the people who will drive their application, we are working towards a system that anticipates risks, supports real-time operational intelligence and facilitates seamless trade.”

The programme further featured presentations on the Smart Customs Project’s deliverables under its Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning (AI/ML) and Blockchain packages, including technical reports, readiness self-assessment tools and practical case studies.

Another session examined AI governance and deployment readiness in Customs, bringing together experts and representatives from Cambodia, Mexico, Türkiye, and Vietnam to discuss institutional preparedness, governance frameworks, and the responsible deployment of emerging technologies.

The post Nigeria Customs Showcases Smart Digital Transformation Journey At 2026 WCO Global Event appeared first on Business Today NG.

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Africa’s downstream petroleum sector at defining point of transformation – NMDPRA’s ex-CEO

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The former Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), Farouk Ahmed, has called for effective and efficient regulation of Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector amid ongoing reforms and changing global market dynamics.

Mr Ahmed, who resigned last year after corruption and abuse-of-office allegations levelled against him by Aliko Dangote, President and Chief Executive of the Dangote Group, made the call while delivering a goodwill message at the celebration of 20 years of OTL Africa Downstream Energy Week in Lagos.

“My four decades of experience have reinforced one enduring lesson: that is, effective regulation cannot operate in isolation from the industry it serves. Good regulation rests on sound policy, credible data, professional competence, meaningful stakeholder consultation, transparency and a clear-eyed understanding of market realities,” he said.

The appearance marks the first time Mr Ahmed has spoken publicly at an industry event since leaving the regulatory agency. He was also presented with an award of special recognition for his role in the growth and success of OTL Africa Energy Week at the gala.

Mr Dangote had accused the former NMDPRA chief of economic sabotage, alleging that the regulator’s policies undermined domestic refining in Nigeria.

He specifically accused the NMDPRA leadership of colluding with international traders and petroleum importers to frustrate local refining by continuing to issue import licences for petroleum products.

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Mr Dangote also questioned Mr Ahmed’s sources of wealth, alleging that four of his children attended secondary schools in Switzerland at a combined cost of several million dollars. He argued that the expenditure raised questions about possible conflicts of interest and the integrity of regulatory oversight in the downstream petroleum sector.

Mr Dangote further alleged that Mr Ahmed spent more than $5 million on his children’s secondary education in Switzerland. He identified the children and their schools as Faisal Farouk of Montreux School; Farouk Jr. of Aiglon College; Ashraf Farouk of Institut Le Rosey; and Farhana Farouk of La Garenne International School. According to Mr Dangote, each child spent six years at their respective institutions.

In December last year, Mr Dangote petitioned the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC) through his lawyer, accusing Mr Ahmed of corruption, abuse of office and economic sabotage. Mr Ahmed has denied any wrongdoing.

The petition followed a public dispute between both men over petroleum importation policies implemented under Mr Ahmed’s leadership at the NMDPRA.

Mr Dangote maintained that the policies undermined Nigeria’s domestic refining capacity, particularly the operations of his multi-billion-dollar refinery.

However, Mr Ahmed had argued that petroleum supply in Nigeria should not be monopolised and that import permits should remain accessible to other market players to promote competition.

Against the backdrop of the allegations and controversy, Mr Ahmed eventually resigned from the NMDPRA.

Regulation and industry transformation

In his remarks at the OTL Africa event, Mr Ahmed argued that responsible operators must recognise that regulation, when properly designed, consistently applied, and fairly enforced, provides the certainty, confidence, and stability required for investment, competition, and sustainable growth.

“This is why platforms such as OTL are important. They help bridge the gap between regulatory objectives and commercial realities. They encourage constructive dialogue, promote mutual understanding, and create opportunities for stakeholders to move beyond competing interests towards common solutions,” he said.

He said he attended the occasion with the perspective of a professional who has devoted more than four decades to petroleum regulation and industry development, including his experience as the NMDPRA’s pioneer Chief Executive.

From that perspective, Mr Ahmed said institutions and platforms that endure for two decades do so because they address genuine needs, deliver sustained value and remain responsive to changing demands.

“OTL Africa has demonstrated these qualities. Your Excellencies, Ladies and Gentlemen, twenty years is more than a milestone; it is a testament to vision, resilience, consistency, and the power of partnership,” he said.

Over the years, he noted, OTL has provided a platform for regulators, operators, investors, policymakers and other stakeholders to exchange ideas, examine emerging challenges, share experiences and collectively seek solutions to issues confronting the industry.

He said the importance of such a platform could not be overstated, given the strategic role of the petroleum and energy industries in economic development.

According to him, the downstream sector affects virtually every aspect of economic life, from transportation and manufacturing to power generation, agriculture, trade and household welfare. Its efficiency, stability and sustainability, he added, have direct implications for national development and people’s quality of life.

Africa’s downstream industry at a turning point

Mr Ahmed said Africa’s downstream petroleum industry was at a defining point of transformation, requiring coordinated and decisive action from governments and industry stakeholders.

He identified energy security, infrastructure deficits, financing constraints, product quality, supply-chain efficiency, market integration, environmental sustainability and the changing global energy landscape as some of the critical issues confronting the industry.

While describing these challenges as significant, he said they also presented considerable opportunities for Africa.

The continent, he argued, has the potential to develop a more integrated, competitive, efficient and resilient downstream energy market.

Realising this potential, he said, would require stronger regional cooperation, investment in storage and distribution infrastructure, modern refining capacity, appropriate technology, transparent market practices and regulatory frameworks that encourage investment while protecting consumers and the public interest.

He also emphasised the need to invest in human capital, noting that the industry’s future would depend not only on infrastructure and capital but also on the competence, integrity and innovative capacity of the professionals who operate and regulate it.

ALSO READ: Nigerian petroleum agency introduces 6 regulations for midstream, downstream sectors

Mr Ahmed urged OTL to evolve beyond a conference and exhibition platform into a stronger catalyst for practical industry solutions, strategic partnerships, investment opportunities and measurable outcomes.

He said discussions at the event should translate into action, partnerships should develop into projects, and ideas generated should contribute to tangible improvements across Africa’s energy value chain.

Institutional continuity and future of the industry

The former regulator also emphasised the importance of institutional continuity, calling for the preservation and transfer of industry knowledge and experience to younger professionals.

He said the experience accumulated over decades must be deliberately shared to prepare the next generation of regulators, entrepreneurs, engineers and energy leaders to address emerging challenges with fresh strategic thinking.

As OTL marked its 20th anniversary, Mr Ahmed urged industry stakeholders to look beyond celebrating past achievements and renew their commitment to the sector’s future.

He called on regulators to strengthen their commitment to fairness, transparency and predictable policies; operators to pursue efficiency, innovation and responsible business practices; investors to provide the capital and long-term commitment required for sustainable development; and policymakers to improve the business environment.

“Above all, let us recognise that Africa’s energy future cannot be built by regulators alone, by operators alone, or by investors alone. It must be built through partnership, trust, and a shared determination to succeed,” he said.

He expressed the hope that OTL’s next 20 years would deliver stronger partnerships, greater investment, smarter regulation, more efficient markets and broader, more reliable energy access for Africans.

“Let us not merely gather to discuss Africa’s energy future; let us unite—with purpose, discipline and urgency—to build it,” he said.


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