From Borno to Kuje in the Federal Capital Territory, Osun State and then to the South-East state of Ebonyi, a pattern is forming.

The APC stalwarts, ranging from governors to commissioners and other officials, are all dishing out various kinds of threats. While some threaten violence, others speak of exclusion, eviction and even political punishment.

Different languages, but the same message: support the APC or face the consequences.

Recall that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) had fixed January 16, 2027, for the presidential and National Assembly elections, and February 6, 2027, for the governorship and State Assembly polls.

While campaigns for the governorship and State Assembly elections are yet to start, those for the presidential and National Assembly elections commenced on August 19.

There are concerns that, barely three weeks into a campaign that is expected to last for over four months, the rhetoric is already painting a dark cloud. This development is not going unnoticed, as opposition political parties, Nigerians and even organisations such as Amnesty International have taken notice of the ugly trend.

Some opposition figures have even taken steps to draw the attention of security agencies to the threats against their candidates.

The trend

Recently, in Maiduguri, the Borno State capital, the state’s Commissioner for Youth and Sports Development, Sainna Buba, warned that residents who would not support President Tinubu’s re-election would have their fingers cut off.

He made the threat at the inauguration of a campaign organised by the City Boy Movement, a political support group backing the President and his administration. Buba warned political opponents against challenging the APC, saying, “Whoever shows us a finger, we are ready to cut off his fingers. Anyone who shows us a finger again would have the finger broken.”

He seemed to equate access to government benefits with political support when he told them that they would be flogged and their welfare packages would go to Tinubu’s supporters alone. “Those who followed the government would enjoy the honey, while those who refused would be flogged,” he added.

He did not mince words. He was not joking. And he meant everything he said.

However, when the video went viral and Amnesty International Nigeria condemned the threat, describing it as reckless and unlawful and demanding an urgent investigation, the commissioner said he was quoted out of context.

Also, in another viral video in August, the Kuje Area Council chairman in the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja, Samuel Danjuma Shekwolo, told residents of the area council that they either had to support the APC or leave the area.

“I have said in my area council, it’s either you’re doing APC or you leave the area council,” he said.

He also warned residents that he would not accept them coming on election day to challenge him, adding, “It is either you are with us, or you are not here.”

The statement drew condemnation from the National Human Rights Commission (NHRC), which described the remarks as intimidating and a direct assault on the Constitution and democratic principles.

The Commission called for Shekwolo’s arrest and prosecution and asked the police, the Department of State Services (DSS) and the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to investigate the statement and take measures to protect residents from harassment, profiling and disenfranchisement ahead of the 2027 elections.

In Ebonyi State, the threats are coming from the governor, Francis Nwifuru, who has twice been reported to have used language that opposition figures consider coercive. In June, a civil society coalition, the Ebonyi Political Think-Tank, accused him of threatening the opposition’s governorship candidate at a rally.

The group notified the police, the DSS and the Army, warning that the governor would be held personally responsible for any harm that followed.

Recently, while addressing the newly sworn-in council chairmen, the governor reiterated his position that no seat would be surrendered to the opposition and that no opposition activity would be tolerated.

Although some people would argue that even the opposition parties are equally guilty of deploying threatening language, the point is that the ruling party should lead by example. Even if the opposition parties are issuing threats, the ruling party should be in a position to bring sanity to the process by enforcing the law.

However, the law is clear: no citizen should be punished for a political choice in a democracy.

Lessons from 2023 polls

The 2023 general election left at least 39 people dead, according to compiled media and police reports. The victims included police officers, party loyalists and ordinary voters, as well as an electoral worker felled by a stray bullet. Among the dead was Oyibo Chukwu, the Labour Party’s senatorial candidate for Enugu East, who was shot and burned by unidentified gunmen days before the presidential vote.

His party’s then-presidential candidate, Peter Obi, mourned him publicly.

The build-up to that election followed a familiar script. Researchers at the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project recorded dozens of violent incidents targeting party supporters, candidates and electoral officials in the months before the vote.

Atrocities Watch Africa and Global Rights counted at least 30 killings and 15 abductions of candidates and politically exposed persons in January 2023 alone, along with six attacks on campaign rallies.

Alhassan Ado Doguwa, then the APC’s House of Representatives Majority Leader for Kano, had warned before the vote that those who refused to support the party would face trouble. He was later charged over election-day violence that killed three of his own constituents. He was never convicted.

Even smaller, off-cycle elections, held outside the national calendar and generally considered easier to secure, have not escaped this pattern. Kogi’s 2019 governorship contest brought killings, ballot-box snatching and the murder of a PDP women’s leader, whose home was burnt by thugs loyal to the state’s ruling party.

Edo and Ondo followed a year later and stayed largely peaceful, helped by peace pacts signed between rivals. But by November 2023, the pattern was back. Kogi, Imo and Bayelsa all held governorship elections marked, in the words of the Centre for Democracy and Development, by vote-buying and pockets of violence, despite a heavy security presence.

This year’s Osun contest, the very election that produced Senator Fadahunsi’s remark, brought fresh accusations. The PDP, and separately former President Goodluck Jonathan, alleged that the APC had brought in thugs from other states.

The Nigeria Civil Society Situation Room estimates that 626 people were killed in violence linked to the 2019 election cycle. In 2015, the figure was 106. Observer groups point to that trajectory as evidence of a country moving in the wrong direction, not the right one.

What lies ahead

The campaign for the presidential and National Assembly race is expected to take proper shape by November. The governorship election campaigns will follow soon after, but political observers are concerned about the optics coming from certain quarters.

According to analysts, certain areas, based on the latest developments, have been marked as places to watch. One such place is Ebonyi.

The governor has been accused twice of using threatening language as the state heads into a contested race.

Another hotspot is Osun. The rivalry between the APC and Accord did not end with August’s election, and tempers there remain raw.

Borno and the wider North-East demand attention, too. The commissioner’s threats have gone unretracted, and existing insecurity in the region could sharpen the effect of political intimidation on voters already reluctant to turn out.

The Federal Capital Territory joins the list, with its councils still shadowed by the Kuje controversy. The pattern seen in Kogi, Imo, Bayelsa and Osun suggests that Nigeria’s off-cycle states remain vulnerable, whatever their smaller size and tighter security cover.

On August 18, Nigeria’s major political parties signed a National Peace Accord, pledging peaceful, issue-based campaigning ahead of 2027. Several of the incidents described here happened after that pledge was made. The police have opened at least one formal inquiry into the Borno commissioner’s remarks.

Osun’s police command questioned Senator Fadahunsi separately. Neither process has produced a public outcome yet.

In Enugu State, there have also been reported attacks on meetings and rallies organised by the opposition in the state, with casualties reported in some of the incidents. The development places the state among those to watch in the 2027 election.

What the law says

A lawyer, Marcellus Onah, offered insight into what the law says regarding statements that could ignite electoral violence.

He noted that these dangerous and incendiary comments are coming at a time when Nigeria has a specific legal framework against threats and violence during election campaigns.

According to him, the Electoral Act 2026, which repealed the Electoral Act 2022, came into force in February 2026. He noted that the new law retained and strengthened provisions regulating the conduct of political campaigns.

“According to Section 97(1) of the Electoral Act 2026, a political party, candidate, aspirant, person or group of persons must not ‘directly or indirectly threaten any person with the use of force or violence during any political campaign’ to compel that person or another person to support or refrain from supporting a political party or candidate.

“It added that such a person, candidate or aspirant found guilty under the provision could face a maximum fine of N5 million or 12 months’ imprisonment, while any political party convicted of the offence faces a N10 million fine for a first offence and N2 million for subsequent offences.

“The law also addresses inflammatory campaign language. Section 96(2) prohibits abusive, intemperate, slanderous or base language, including insinuations or innuendoes designed or likely to provoke violent reactions or emotions during political campaigns.

“This means that where a statement amounts to a threat of force or violence intended to influence political support, the Electoral Act provides a specific offence.

“Similarly, Section 40 of the Nigeria 1999 Constitution, as amended, guarantees every person the right to freely associate with others, including the right to form or belong to a political party,” he said.

He further noted that the law states: “Every person shall be entitled to assemble freely and associate with other persons, and in particular he may form or belong to any political party, trade union or any other association for the protection of his interests.”

However, with the personalities involved in the Borno, Kuje, Osun and Ebonyi incidents yet to be punished, Nigerians are raising concerns about whether the 2027 elections would be marred by violence and, eventually, whether their credibility would be affected.

In any case, the next four months are expected to show whether words spoken today become the violence of tomorrow, or whether the country will find a way to keep its politics as a contest of votes, not threats. But the bottom line remains that no citizen should be punished for a political choice in a democracy.

Nigerians are also calling on security agencies, particularly the police, to rise to the responsibility, go after anybody who threatens another ahead of the coming election, arrest such persons or groups and prosecute them.