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March 18 Polls: Plateau Guber Data-backed Predictions – WHO MAY LIKELY WIN!

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Plateau politics has over the years shown some unique difference compared to others’ in terms of voter choices.

While in other States, voters tend to vote one political party from bottom-top of the ballot regardless of what candidates they present, in Plateau State, voters mostly prefer to go for the candidates regardless of their political party.

For instance, in the August 1979 general elections that heralded the second republic, Plateau State unanimously voted Solomon Lar of the Nigerian People’s Party (NPP) despite being part of the northern region which was chiefly controlled by the National Party of Nigeria (NPN). In fact, Plateau was the only State in the north which had so much support for the NPP – then regarded chiefly as an eastern political party.

Between 1993 – during Nigeria’s third republic and 2011, the voting patterns in Plateau State slightly changed – favouring the Presidential and Governorship candidates of the ruling political parties. Yet, national and State Assembly elections were highly diversified.

A classical example was when former Governor Joshua Dariye was elected Senator for Plateau Central Zone on the platform of the Labour Party in 2011, beating the candidate of the then ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) – Dauda Gowon who is younger brother to former Head of State Yakubu Gowon.

Dariye was re-elected on the platform of the PDP in 2015 when the All Progressives Congress (APC) party won the Governorship elections for Plateau State.

Interestingly, despite winning the Governorships, the APC lost the Presidential elections in Plateau State that year. The same thing happened in 2019 when President Muhammadu Buhari was re-elected alongside Governor Simon Lalong in Plateau State. While Lalong won his election on the platform of the APC, Buhari lost the State to the PDP.

The recently held Presidential and National Assembly elections were no different. The candidate of the APC – Ahmed Tinubu was declared winner of the elections held across the country.

But he did lose in Plateau State, the home of his Campaign Director-General. A largely underrated candidate of the newly revived Labour Party – Peter Obi won the Presidential elections in the State with 466,272 votes based on the declared results.

The ruling APC polled 307,195 while the PDP which won in the state during the 2019 polls only garnered 243,808 votes.

The results which sprang a surprise on 25 February have remained a hot debate topic at different fora. Many analysts expect the same results to manifest during the State elections coming tomorrow.

But as already hinted, Plateau politics is uniquely dynamic and indeed unpredictable. However, a number of indicators might exist to give an idea of the likely prospects for each of the three leading political parties.

To begin with, Plateau currently has 2,755,017 registered voters according to data from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). However, during the last elections, only 1,139,393 came out to vote. Surprisingly again, those that actually voted despite being accredited were 1,111,164. But that is not the concern here.

Based on the declared results for the Presidency, the Labour Party won in Jos South, Bassa, Shendam, Pankshin, Bokkos, Mangu, Langtang North, Riyom, Jos East, Barkin Ladi, and Jos North LGAs.

The APC won in Kanke, Kanam and Wase LGAs, while the PDP won in, Langtang South, Mikang and Quaanpan LGAs.

PDP Strongholds

But going by the popularity of these political parties as well as the influence of some significant figures associated with each of them, we can assume the PDP controls at least 11 out of 17 local governments in Plateau State. They include (along with their estimated voting populations):

Jos East 72000

Jos south 307000

Bassa 157000

Barkin Ladi 126000

Riyom 81000

Bokkos 130000

Mangu 224000

Mikang 63000

Quaanpan 171000

Langtang south 72000

Langtang North 136000.

APC strongholds

The APC on the other hand has control of

Jos north 490000

Kanke 102000

Kanam 164000

Wase 168000

Shendam 179000.

LP strength

The LP if anything has control of Pankshin with 141000 voters. During the last elections, the LP won in Jos North with 70,357. The APC which previously often swept the LGA scored 65,656 While the PDP scored 22,528.

The coming elections are likely to see a shift in this pattern because the majority of those that voted the LP in Jos north were Christians. There were three Muslim candidates from APC, PDP and NNPP which caused them to split the Muslim votes.

This time around, the Muslims have one direction – APC as advocated by some renowned Islamic scholars. The LP might still pull a chunk of votes from the Igbo dominated areas of the LGA but not as much as the PDP which controls the largest electoral ward in the LGA – Tudun Wada/Kabong. The ward alone has more than 90,000 registered voters.

In Shendam, Governor Lalong’s LGA, the LP again won with 25,825 votes to beat APC which scored 17,132 and the PDP which scored 8,444. However, that voting pattern may have been influenced by a protest against the Governor Lalong who is being accused of doing very little for the LGA since his emergence as Governor in 2015.

The same protest might reflect in tomorrow’s elections as the APC candidate – Nentawe Yilwada is largely seen to be a disciple and a close ally of the Governor. But the PDP which won the southern Senatorial elections might have a higher chance than the LP.

The LP Governorship candidate – Patrick Dakum does not seem to have the popularity and influence of the party’s Presidential candidate – Peter Obi in Shendam.

In Kanke, Kanam and Wase LGAs, the APC will definitely maintain its lead. The House of Assembly seat in Wase might likely go to the PDP due to the candidate’s popularity but not the Governorship.

This is because the party’s candidate hails from Kanke and has a strong support base in Wase and Kanam. If that happens, the APC has a guaranteed 434,000 votes if all registered voters in the LGAs cast their ballots.

From the 2015 and 2019 election results, Jos north is likely going to donate as many as 250,000 votes to the APC. That would give the party a potential 700,000 votes if added to its accrued votes from other LGAs.

But this is barely half of the PDP’s potential 1,425,600 votes from its aforementioned strongholds.

If the party eventually succeeds in squeezing the votes from Shendam in its favour, it would have an added 179,000 votes to brag about.

Be that as it may, the total voter turnout for the previous elections was only around 40%. This is expected to slump further as many voters dissatisfied with the results of the Presidential polls might avoid the polling stations.

Many again have shown interest only in the Presidential polls, considering the local elections as an internal competition with little or no effect regardless of the winner.

That said, an issue that has remained unclear is if the PDP with its bright chances will survive the wave of litigations against it, especially as it relates to the legality of the party executives that conducted its Primaries prior to the elections. But that will be topic for another day.

 

Culled from MK Reporters

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Peter Obi sparks reactions with appearance at Makinde’s campaign office

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Former Anambra State Governor and presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), Peter Obi, has sparked mixed reactions online following his appearance at the inauguration of the Abuja campaign office of the Allied Peoples Movement (APM) presidential candidate, Seyi Makinde.

The event, held on Monday in the Federal Capital Territory, was attended by Makinde’s supporters, Obi and other members of the APM.

Videos of the event shared online showed Obi expressing solidarity with Makinde and describing him as a qualified candidate for the presidency.

Obi said his presence at the inauguration was aimed at promoting cooperation among political leaders and allowing Nigerians to freely choose their preferred candidate.

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“You have a candidate who is contesting for President today. My dear brother, Seyi Makinde, is he qualified to be President? Yes. He’s qualified,” Obi said.

He added that whoever emerged victorious through a free and credible election should be supported by others to work towards addressing the country’s challenges.

“Whoever wins, genuinely, from a free, fair, credible election, all of us want to work together to save this country from collapse. That is why I’m here, to show solidarity, to assure you that we are changing the people,” he said.

“We don’t want policies of quarrel, policies of disagreement. Let our quarrel be to feed our people,” he added.

He further expressed his desire for a country where citizens could achieve their aspirations regardless of their background or connections.

“We want Nigeria where a child of nobody can be somebody without knowing anybody. That’s what we want,” Obi added.

The speech, however, triggered varied reactions online, with some social media users praising Obi’s position, while others questioned the decision of a presidential candidate to appear at the campaign event of another presidential contender.

Omo_asunmogejo wrote: “Is Peter Obi not a ‘gbewudani’ by joining the campaign of another presidential candidate in an election that he himself is a candidate. If he is serious about his own campaign he won’t have time to be campaigning for another presidential candidate.”

Deximal simply reacted: “Lol. Presidential candidate at the inauguration of another presidential candidate.”

Segun Benson suggested that there could be more to the development, writing: “Something is cooking underneath. Well, once done, we will all see it, whether to eat it or trash it.”

Paul Bushman criticised Obi’s approach, describing it as “naive politics.” He wrote: “Can you see a democrat or republican at another party’s function endorsing their candidate while also contesting for the same position? Nothing like politics without bitterness. Obi lacks ideological faithfulness. No wonder he changes parties easily.”

Tripsoflife also questioned the development, writing “Obidients are supporting and marketing @PeterObi an NDC presidential candidate, in return Obi is marketing @seyimakinde of the APM. Stop Obi from attending places you guys think it was a joke, soon baba go campaign for Atiku and Tinubu. Obi(MTN) everywhere you go.”

However, some users defended Obi, arguing that his appearance demonstrated a willingness to put national interest above personal political ambition.

Odyssey wrote: “This man only cares about Nigerians. He’s not desperate to be president. He just wants to save Nigerians, so let’s try our best to support his goal for us all. Nigerians Wake up.”

Jeremial Olaposi described Obi’s approach as “the more you look, the less you see style of politics.”

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Nigeria Wrestling: Oklahoma Camp Ends as Purity Targets World Championship Medal Breakthrough in Astana

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Nigeria’s preparations for the World Wrestling Championship in Astana, Kazakhstan, have entered a crucial phase following the conclusion of the Nigeria Wrestling Federation’s (NWF) intensive open camp programme in Oklahoma, United States.

The camp, sanctioned by NWF President Bashir Adewale Adeniyi, MFR, was organised to provide foreign-based Nigerian wrestlers and athletes with valid visas the opportunity to train and compete in a high-level environment ahead of the global championship.

Rather than limiting preparations for routine training sessions, the Oklahoma programme exposed the Nigerian wrestlers to quality opposition through a series of dual meets against athletes from NCAA Division I universities in the United States.

The competitive exposure gave the athletes an opportunity to test their technical and physical readiness against wrestlers competing within one of the world’s strongest collegiate wrestling systems.

Nigeria’s Women’s Wrestling Head Coach, Akuh Purity, described the exercise as an important assessment of the team’s current level, while revealing that the lessons from the camp are already being applied in the team’s ongoing closed-camp programme.

“It was a very valuable experience and gave us an excellent opportunity to assess where we currently stand.”

According to Purity, the dual meets did more than provide competition — they exposed specific areas of the athletes’ performances that needed immediate correction before the World Championships.

“Following the open camp, we transitioned into a closed camp, where we are currently training. We are using this period to specifically address and correct some of the mistakes and weaknesses I identified during the open camp and duals.”

The coach said the wrestlers have responded positively to the demanding programme, with the squad continuing to work intensely as the countdown to Astana gathers momentum.

“The girls are working extremely hard, and we remain committed to making the necessary improvements as we continue our preparation.”

The Oklahoma camp is part of the NWF’s broader strategy to ensure that Nigeria’s wrestlers are adequately prepared for the demands of the World Championships.

The federation’s decision to utilise the United States as one of the team’s preparation bases also reflects the importance being attached to quality opposition, international exposure and competitive readiness.

Purity expressed appreciation to Adeniyi and the NWF leadership for supporting the programme and ensuring that preparations are being strengthened ahead of the global event.

“We appreciate the Nigeria Wrestling Federation, led by Bashir Adewale Adeniyi MFR, for the tremendous support and contribution towards ensuring that the necessary preparations are put in place for the World Championships.”

With the open camp now completed, attention has shifted to the closed phase, where the coaching crew is concentrating on correcting weaknesses and sharpening the athletes’ technical, tactical and physical qualities.

The objective is clear: Nigeria wants to arrive in Astana not merely to participate, but to challenge for honours.

The country’s wrestlers will also carry the added motivation of ending Nigeria’s wait for a World Championship medal. Nigeria’s most recent podium finish at the senior World Championships came in 2023, and the team will be determined to return to the medal table in Kazakhstan.

For Purity and her athletes, the Oklahoma experience has provided valuable information. The challenge now is to convert those lessons into improvements before the opening whistle in Astana.

The open camp has closed, but Nigeria’s real wrestling test is only getting closer — and this time, the target is the World Championship podium.

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