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March 18 Polls: Plateau Guber Data-backed Predictions – WHO MAY LIKELY WIN!

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Plateau politics has over the years shown some unique difference compared to others’ in terms of voter choices.

While in other States, voters tend to vote one political party from bottom-top of the ballot regardless of what candidates they present, in Plateau State, voters mostly prefer to go for the candidates regardless of their political party.

For instance, in the August 1979 general elections that heralded the second republic, Plateau State unanimously voted Solomon Lar of the Nigerian People’s Party (NPP) despite being part of the northern region which was chiefly controlled by the National Party of Nigeria (NPN). In fact, Plateau was the only State in the north which had so much support for the NPP – then regarded chiefly as an eastern political party.

Between 1993 – during Nigeria’s third republic and 2011, the voting patterns in Plateau State slightly changed – favouring the Presidential and Governorship candidates of the ruling political parties. Yet, national and State Assembly elections were highly diversified.

A classical example was when former Governor Joshua Dariye was elected Senator for Plateau Central Zone on the platform of the Labour Party in 2011, beating the candidate of the then ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) – Dauda Gowon who is younger brother to former Head of State Yakubu Gowon.

Dariye was re-elected on the platform of the PDP in 2015 when the All Progressives Congress (APC) party won the Governorship elections for Plateau State.

Interestingly, despite winning the Governorships, the APC lost the Presidential elections in Plateau State that year. The same thing happened in 2019 when President Muhammadu Buhari was re-elected alongside Governor Simon Lalong in Plateau State. While Lalong won his election on the platform of the APC, Buhari lost the State to the PDP.

The recently held Presidential and National Assembly elections were no different. The candidate of the APC – Ahmed Tinubu was declared winner of the elections held across the country.

But he did lose in Plateau State, the home of his Campaign Director-General. A largely underrated candidate of the newly revived Labour Party – Peter Obi won the Presidential elections in the State with 466,272 votes based on the declared results.

The ruling APC polled 307,195 while the PDP which won in the state during the 2019 polls only garnered 243,808 votes.

The results which sprang a surprise on 25 February have remained a hot debate topic at different fora. Many analysts expect the same results to manifest during the State elections coming tomorrow.

But as already hinted, Plateau politics is uniquely dynamic and indeed unpredictable. However, a number of indicators might exist to give an idea of the likely prospects for each of the three leading political parties.

To begin with, Plateau currently has 2,755,017 registered voters according to data from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). However, during the last elections, only 1,139,393 came out to vote. Surprisingly again, those that actually voted despite being accredited were 1,111,164. But that is not the concern here.

Based on the declared results for the Presidency, the Labour Party won in Jos South, Bassa, Shendam, Pankshin, Bokkos, Mangu, Langtang North, Riyom, Jos East, Barkin Ladi, and Jos North LGAs.

The APC won in Kanke, Kanam and Wase LGAs, while the PDP won in, Langtang South, Mikang and Quaanpan LGAs.

PDP Strongholds

But going by the popularity of these political parties as well as the influence of some significant figures associated with each of them, we can assume the PDP controls at least 11 out of 17 local governments in Plateau State. They include (along with their estimated voting populations):

Jos East 72000

Jos south 307000

Bassa 157000

Barkin Ladi 126000

Riyom 81000

Bokkos 130000

Mangu 224000

Mikang 63000

Quaanpan 171000

Langtang south 72000

Langtang North 136000.

APC strongholds

The APC on the other hand has control of

Jos north 490000

Kanke 102000

Kanam 164000

Wase 168000

Shendam 179000.

LP strength

The LP if anything has control of Pankshin with 141000 voters. During the last elections, the LP won in Jos North with 70,357. The APC which previously often swept the LGA scored 65,656 While the PDP scored 22,528.

The coming elections are likely to see a shift in this pattern because the majority of those that voted the LP in Jos north were Christians. There were three Muslim candidates from APC, PDP and NNPP which caused them to split the Muslim votes.

This time around, the Muslims have one direction – APC as advocated by some renowned Islamic scholars. The LP might still pull a chunk of votes from the Igbo dominated areas of the LGA but not as much as the PDP which controls the largest electoral ward in the LGA – Tudun Wada/Kabong. The ward alone has more than 90,000 registered voters.

In Shendam, Governor Lalong’s LGA, the LP again won with 25,825 votes to beat APC which scored 17,132 and the PDP which scored 8,444. However, that voting pattern may have been influenced by a protest against the Governor Lalong who is being accused of doing very little for the LGA since his emergence as Governor in 2015.

The same protest might reflect in tomorrow’s elections as the APC candidate – Nentawe Yilwada is largely seen to be a disciple and a close ally of the Governor. But the PDP which won the southern Senatorial elections might have a higher chance than the LP.

The LP Governorship candidate – Patrick Dakum does not seem to have the popularity and influence of the party’s Presidential candidate – Peter Obi in Shendam.

In Kanke, Kanam and Wase LGAs, the APC will definitely maintain its lead. The House of Assembly seat in Wase might likely go to the PDP due to the candidate’s popularity but not the Governorship.

This is because the party’s candidate hails from Kanke and has a strong support base in Wase and Kanam. If that happens, the APC has a guaranteed 434,000 votes if all registered voters in the LGAs cast their ballots.

From the 2015 and 2019 election results, Jos north is likely going to donate as many as 250,000 votes to the APC. That would give the party a potential 700,000 votes if added to its accrued votes from other LGAs.

But this is barely half of the PDP’s potential 1,425,600 votes from its aforementioned strongholds.

If the party eventually succeeds in squeezing the votes from Shendam in its favour, it would have an added 179,000 votes to brag about.

Be that as it may, the total voter turnout for the previous elections was only around 40%. This is expected to slump further as many voters dissatisfied with the results of the Presidential polls might avoid the polling stations.

Many again have shown interest only in the Presidential polls, considering the local elections as an internal competition with little or no effect regardless of the winner.

That said, an issue that has remained unclear is if the PDP with its bright chances will survive the wave of litigations against it, especially as it relates to the legality of the party executives that conducted its Primaries prior to the elections. But that will be topic for another day.

 

Culled from MK Reporters

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Osun Guber: NUJ condemns escalating political violence ahead of governorship election campaigns

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The Nigeria Union of Journalists, NUJ, Osun State Council, has condemned the rising wave of political violence ahead of the August 15, 2026 governorship election.

The union also warned that the trend poses a serious threat to peace, public safety and the democratic process.

The Council expressed concern over increasing reports of killings, intimidation and destruction of property linked to political activities, saying the situation could undermine the credibility of the election if urgent steps were not taken to curb the violence.

In a statement jointly signed by the Osun NUJ Chairman, Adeyemi Aboderin, and the Secretary, Olalekan Akindoju, the union cited a report by the Kimpact Development Initiative, KDI, which recorded 44 election-related violent incidents across the state between October 2025 and June 2026.

According to the statement, the incidents reportedly resulted in the deaths of 13 people, a development the Council described as alarming and requiring immediate intervention by all stakeholders.

“The figures should serve as a wake-up call to all stakeholders. No political ambition is worth the loss of human lives,” the statement said.

The Council called on security agencies to intensify efforts to prevent further violence by protecting lives and property, maintaining professionalism and impartiality, and ensuring that those responsible for violent acts were brought to justice regardless of their political affiliations.

It also urged political parties, governorship candidates and their supporters to conduct peaceful campaigns centred on issues affecting the people, rather than engaging in actions capable of fuelling unrest.

“The NUJ cautions political leaders against making inflammatory statements that could incite violence. They have a responsibility to restrain their supporters and place the interests of Osun State above partisan considerations.

“The Council appeals to residents, particularly young people, not to allow themselves to be used as agents of political violence or intimidation during the electioneering period,” the statement added.

It emphasised that the lives and future of the state’s youth should not be sacrificed for political interests, urging them to reject any attempt to lure them into unlawful activities.

The NUJ reaffirmed the commitment of journalists in Osun State to promoting responsible journalism, factual reporting and public enlightenment throughout the governorship election campaign.

It also called on media practitioners to uphold the ethics of the profession by avoiding sensational reports capable of escalating political tension, while encouraging balanced and accurate coverage of political activities across the state.

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Resident doctors threaten nationwide strike over OAUTHC doctors’ industrial action

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The Nigerian Association of Resident Doctors (NARD) has threatened to embark on a nationwide solidarity strike if the ongoing industrial dispute at the Obafemi Awolowo University Teaching Hospitals Complex (OAUTHC) is not resolved.

In a statement on Thursday, the health body expressed support for resident doctors who commenced an indefinite strike last week.

The association, said the industrial action by the Association of Resident Doctors, OAUTHC (ARD OAUTHC), which began on 22 June, followed months of unresolved welfare and workplace concerns that management allegedly failed to address.

NARD described the crisis as avoidable, blaming it on what it called the hospital management’s failure to respond to repeated complaints despite earlier interventions by the national body.

Previous intervention ignored

According to the association, it had written to the Federal Ministry of Health and Social Welfare on 16 March, drawing attention to the deteriorating relationship between OAUTHC management and resident doctors.

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The association said it requested a stakeholders’ meeting involving the ministry, hospital management, ARD OAUTHC and NARD to address issues including salary arrears, accommodation disputes, restrictions affecting the association’s secretariat and other administrative concerns.

It said despite subsequent follow-up efforts, including another intervention in June, the issues were not treated with the urgency required.

NARD accused the hospital management of adopting a “combative” and “dismissive” approach that deepened mistrust and eventually led to the indefinite strike.

Welfare concerns

The association said the doctors’ grievances centred on several welfare and workplace issues, including the refusal to provide comprehensive meal coverage for doctors on call, the transfer of identity card costs to employees, unresolved accommodation challenges and the non-payment of some allowances.

Other concerns include the imposition of bench fees on resident doctors from accredited private teaching hospitals undertaking clinical rotations at OAUTHC, as well as what NARD described as a pattern of intimidation and victimisation of resident doctors.

The association also alleged that the hospital management’s response during the strike ultimatum did not accurately reflect discussions held with the doctors, leading members of ARD OAUTHC to reject the response and proceed with the industrial action.

Nationwide action

NARD said the dispute was discussed during its May Ordinary General Meeting in Kano, where delegates raised concerns over the welfare of resident doctors and gave its National Officers’ Committee 21 days to engage relevant stakeholders.

The association said it was unacceptable that the matter was allowed to degenerate into an indefinite strike despite the warning.

They warned that the dispute now threatens patient care, emergency services, residency training and the overall stability of the teaching hospital.

NARD called on the Federal Ministry of Health and Social Welfare to urgently convene a high-level meeting involving all parties to resolve the dispute.

It also urged the ministry to direct the hospital management to address outstanding welfare issues, stop any form of intimidation or victimisation of resident doctors, protect members participating in lawful union activities and establish a monitored framework for implementing any agreements reached.

The association warned that if the dispute remains unresolved within a reasonable time, it would be compelled to declare a nationwide solidarity strike in support of the OAUTHC resident doctors.

Ultimatum

The latest dispute comes as NARD is already locked in a broader industrial dispute with the federal government over unresolved welfare, remuneration and training-related issues affecting resident doctors across the country.

READ ALSO: NMA warns of wider health crisis as LASUTH doctors’ strike enters second day

Earlier this month, the association declared a nationwide industrial dispute and issued the federal government a 21-day ultimatum to address demands including the release of the 2026 Medical Residency Training Fund (MRTF), payment of outstanding salary and promotion arrears, correction of allowance discrepancies, improved welfare for house officers and stronger measures to protect doctors from assaults in hospitals.

The ultimatum, which is now approaching its expiration, followed resolutions reached at the association’s Ordinary General Meeting (OGM) in Kano, where delegates also raised concerns over unresolved welfare issues at several hospitals, including OAUTHC.

At the meeting, NARD specifically warned about the alleged intimidation of resident doctors at the Ile-Ife-based teaching hospital and gave its National Officers’ Committee 21 days to engage relevant stakeholders before considering further action.


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