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March 18 Polls: Plateau Guber Data-backed Predictions – WHO MAY LIKELY WIN!

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Plateau politics has over the years shown some unique difference compared to others’ in terms of voter choices.

While in other States, voters tend to vote one political party from bottom-top of the ballot regardless of what candidates they present, in Plateau State, voters mostly prefer to go for the candidates regardless of their political party.

For instance, in the August 1979 general elections that heralded the second republic, Plateau State unanimously voted Solomon Lar of the Nigerian People’s Party (NPP) despite being part of the northern region which was chiefly controlled by the National Party of Nigeria (NPN). In fact, Plateau was the only State in the north which had so much support for the NPP – then regarded chiefly as an eastern political party.

Between 1993 – during Nigeria’s third republic and 2011, the voting patterns in Plateau State slightly changed – favouring the Presidential and Governorship candidates of the ruling political parties. Yet, national and State Assembly elections were highly diversified.

A classical example was when former Governor Joshua Dariye was elected Senator for Plateau Central Zone on the platform of the Labour Party in 2011, beating the candidate of the then ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) – Dauda Gowon who is younger brother to former Head of State Yakubu Gowon.

Dariye was re-elected on the platform of the PDP in 2015 when the All Progressives Congress (APC) party won the Governorship elections for Plateau State.

Interestingly, despite winning the Governorships, the APC lost the Presidential elections in Plateau State that year. The same thing happened in 2019 when President Muhammadu Buhari was re-elected alongside Governor Simon Lalong in Plateau State. While Lalong won his election on the platform of the APC, Buhari lost the State to the PDP.

The recently held Presidential and National Assembly elections were no different. The candidate of the APC – Ahmed Tinubu was declared winner of the elections held across the country.

But he did lose in Plateau State, the home of his Campaign Director-General. A largely underrated candidate of the newly revived Labour Party – Peter Obi won the Presidential elections in the State with 466,272 votes based on the declared results.

The ruling APC polled 307,195 while the PDP which won in the state during the 2019 polls only garnered 243,808 votes.

The results which sprang a surprise on 25 February have remained a hot debate topic at different fora. Many analysts expect the same results to manifest during the State elections coming tomorrow.

But as already hinted, Plateau politics is uniquely dynamic and indeed unpredictable. However, a number of indicators might exist to give an idea of the likely prospects for each of the three leading political parties.

To begin with, Plateau currently has 2,755,017 registered voters according to data from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). However, during the last elections, only 1,139,393 came out to vote. Surprisingly again, those that actually voted despite being accredited were 1,111,164. But that is not the concern here.

Based on the declared results for the Presidency, the Labour Party won in Jos South, Bassa, Shendam, Pankshin, Bokkos, Mangu, Langtang North, Riyom, Jos East, Barkin Ladi, and Jos North LGAs.

The APC won in Kanke, Kanam and Wase LGAs, while the PDP won in, Langtang South, Mikang and Quaanpan LGAs.

PDP Strongholds

But going by the popularity of these political parties as well as the influence of some significant figures associated with each of them, we can assume the PDP controls at least 11 out of 17 local governments in Plateau State. They include (along with their estimated voting populations):

Jos East 72000

Jos south 307000

Bassa 157000

Barkin Ladi 126000

Riyom 81000

Bokkos 130000

Mangu 224000

Mikang 63000

Quaanpan 171000

Langtang south 72000

Langtang North 136000.

APC strongholds

The APC on the other hand has control of

Jos north 490000

Kanke 102000

Kanam 164000

Wase 168000

Shendam 179000.

LP strength

The LP if anything has control of Pankshin with 141000 voters. During the last elections, the LP won in Jos North with 70,357. The APC which previously often swept the LGA scored 65,656 While the PDP scored 22,528.

The coming elections are likely to see a shift in this pattern because the majority of those that voted the LP in Jos north were Christians. There were three Muslim candidates from APC, PDP and NNPP which caused them to split the Muslim votes.

This time around, the Muslims have one direction – APC as advocated by some renowned Islamic scholars. The LP might still pull a chunk of votes from the Igbo dominated areas of the LGA but not as much as the PDP which controls the largest electoral ward in the LGA – Tudun Wada/Kabong. The ward alone has more than 90,000 registered voters.

In Shendam, Governor Lalong’s LGA, the LP again won with 25,825 votes to beat APC which scored 17,132 and the PDP which scored 8,444. However, that voting pattern may have been influenced by a protest against the Governor Lalong who is being accused of doing very little for the LGA since his emergence as Governor in 2015.

The same protest might reflect in tomorrow’s elections as the APC candidate – Nentawe Yilwada is largely seen to be a disciple and a close ally of the Governor. But the PDP which won the southern Senatorial elections might have a higher chance than the LP.

The LP Governorship candidate – Patrick Dakum does not seem to have the popularity and influence of the party’s Presidential candidate – Peter Obi in Shendam.

In Kanke, Kanam and Wase LGAs, the APC will definitely maintain its lead. The House of Assembly seat in Wase might likely go to the PDP due to the candidate’s popularity but not the Governorship.

This is because the party’s candidate hails from Kanke and has a strong support base in Wase and Kanam. If that happens, the APC has a guaranteed 434,000 votes if all registered voters in the LGAs cast their ballots.

From the 2015 and 2019 election results, Jos north is likely going to donate as many as 250,000 votes to the APC. That would give the party a potential 700,000 votes if added to its accrued votes from other LGAs.

But this is barely half of the PDP’s potential 1,425,600 votes from its aforementioned strongholds.

If the party eventually succeeds in squeezing the votes from Shendam in its favour, it would have an added 179,000 votes to brag about.

Be that as it may, the total voter turnout for the previous elections was only around 40%. This is expected to slump further as many voters dissatisfied with the results of the Presidential polls might avoid the polling stations.

Many again have shown interest only in the Presidential polls, considering the local elections as an internal competition with little or no effect regardless of the winner.

That said, an issue that has remained unclear is if the PDP with its bright chances will survive the wave of litigations against it, especially as it relates to the legality of the party executives that conducted its Primaries prior to the elections. But that will be topic for another day.

 

Culled from MK Reporters

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S&P upgrades Nigeria’s credit rating, FG reacts

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S&P Global Ratings has upgraded Nigeria’s credit rating from B- to B with a Stable Outlook, an indication that the US-based agency believes Nigeria’s economy is getting better.

The improved rating was disclosed by finance minister Taiwo Oyedele in an X post early on Saturday.

“This latest upgrade by S&P follows similar positive rating actions in 2025 by Fitch Ratings and Moody’s Ratings,” Mr Oyedele wrote.

PREMIUM TIMES reports that Fitch and Moody’s had upgraded Nigeria’s sovereign rating, with Fitch also raising the rating from B-to B with a stable outlook.

Mr Oyedele said the improved ratings by the three global ratings firms indicate their belief in President Bola Tinubu’s economic policies.

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“It further reinforces growing international confidence in Nigeria’s economic reform trajectory, policy consistency, and medium-term growth prospects,” he wrote.

Read Mr Oyedele’s full statement below.

T ’ &

The Federal Government welcomes the decision by S&P Global Ratings to upgrade Nigeria’s sovereign credit rating from ‘B-’ to ‘B’ with a Stable Outlook.

This latest upgrade by S&P follows similar positive rating actions in 2025 by Fitch Ratings and Moody’s Ratings. It further reinforces growing international confidence in Nigeria’s economic reform trajectory, policy consistency, and medium-term growth prospects.

These independent assessments collectively affirm that the difficult but necessary reforms undertaken under the leadership of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, GCFR, are yielding measurable results and laying the foundation for a more stable, transparent, and resilient economy.

In particular, S&P highlighted improvements in Nigeria’s external position, stronger balance of payments dynamics, increased oil production, expanding domestic refining and export capacity, and the sustained implementation of key macroeconomic reforms including foreign exchange market liberalisation.

The agency also recognised ongoing fiscal reforms aimed at broadening the tax base, improving public revenue mobilisation, enhancing fiscal transparency, and strengthening debt sustainability. Notably, Nigeria’s debt-to-revenue ratio has improved significantly since 2023 and is projected to decline further as reforms continue to mature.

The upgrades by Fitch, Moody’s, and now S&P send a strong signal to global investors, development partners, financial markets, and the international business community that Nigeria is regaining macroeconomic credibility and restoring confidence in the management of its economy.

The government remains firmly committed to prudent fiscal management, macroeconomic stability, and structural reforms that promote inclusive and sustainable growth. We have maintained our position against the reintroduction of inefficient fuel subsidies which historically created significant fiscal distortions, incentivised smuggling, weakened foreign exchange liquidity, and diverted scarce public resources away from critical national priorities.

We remain committed to a market-driven economy anchored on transparency, competition, and effective regulatory oversight. Accordingly, the Federal Government will continue to uphold policies that support free enterprise, respect private investment, and provide a stable and predictable environment for businesses and investors to thrive.

While these positive ratings developments are encouraging, we recognise that the work ahead remains substantial. We are focused on addressing inflationary pressures, improving food security, expanding decent job opportunities, and ensuring that economic growth translates into meaningful and inclusive prosperity for all Nigerians.

The Federal, States and Local Governments will continue to implement reforms with discipline, pragmatism, and compassion while maintaining close engagement with citizens and all stakeholders.

The Federal Government appreciates the resilience, patience, and support of Nigerians in this reform journey. The improving outlook from leading global rating agencies will further position our country to attract investments and and enhance the country’s ability to secure financing on more favourable terms. We are strengthened in our resolve to build a stronger economy that is globally competitive, fiscally sustainable, and works for all Nigerians.


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Peter Obi’s acceptance in North still in doubt despite Kwankwaso’s support base – Muhammad, Ibrahim 

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A political alliance between former Labour Party presidential candidate, Peter Obi, and the leader of the Kwankwasiyya movement, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, is already generating fresh conversations ahead of the 2027 presidential election.

Although neither politician has officially emerged as the presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) yet, both men are seen as preferred candidates to contest against the ruling party and other strong opposition parties in the next election cycle.

Political observers believe the talks are largely driven by the electoral realities of the 2023 presidential election, where both candidates recorded impressive but regionally limited performances.

Obi secured more than six million votes nationwide under the Labour Party and won 11 states alongside the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). However, in the northern region, his victories were limited to Plateau and Nasarawa states, as well as the FCT, where he enjoyed considerable support.

Kwankwaso, who contested on the platform of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), won Kano State and secured nearly one million votes, reinforcing his influence in the North-West.

The proposed alliance is now raising questions about whether Kwankwaso’s northern political structure could help Obi improve his acceptance across the region in 2027.

Speaking with DAILY POST in an exclusive interview, political analyst and lecturer at the Aliko Dangote University of Science and Technology, Professor Murtala Muhammad, said Obi’s appeal in the North during the 2023 election was mostly concentrated among urban youths and citizens seeking alternatives to mainstream political parties.

“Peter Obi demonstrated some electoral strength in parts of Northern Nigeria during the 2023 presidential election, particularly in Abuja and among urban youths, middle-class voters, and citizens dissatisfied with the traditional political establishment,” he said.

According to him, electoral trends showed that Obi’s strongest support base remained outside the North.

“Electoral analyses estimated his northern vote share at roughly 14 per cent, compared to over 40 per cent in Southern Nigeria,” Muhammad stated.

He explained that while an alliance with Kwankwaso could strengthen Obi’s chances in Kano and parts of the North-West, it may not significantly alter the broader regional voting pattern.

“Although a potential alliance with Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso could improve Obi’s competitiveness, particularly in Kano through the Kwankwasiyya movement, it does not automatically guarantee widespread northern support,” he added.

Muhammad argued that voting behaviour across most parts of the North-West is still heavily influenced by religion, regional identity, longstanding party loyalty, and local political interests.

“Consequently, many northern voters may still be reluctant to support Obi despite Kwankwaso’s endorsement, making it analytically inaccurate to assume that Kwankwaso’s northern identity alone can deliver the wider North-West voting bloc to Obi,” he said.

Also speaking on the development, Kano-based politician and State House of Assembly aspirant, Aminu Abdullahi Ibrahim, acknowledged that Obi has gained more visibility among northern youths since the last election.

“I believe Peter Obi has gained a level of popularity in parts of northern Nigeria, especially among young people, urban voters, Christians in the North-Central region, and Nigerians who are frustrated,” Ibrahim said.

He maintained, however, that Obi still faces stiff political limitations in the core North-West states, where established political structures remain dominant.

“His popularity in the core North-West, particularly in states like Kano, Katsina, Jigawa, Kebbi, Sokoto, and Zamfara, still remains limited when compared to established northern political figures such as Atiku Abubakar,” he added.

Despite those limitations, Ibrahim said a merger between both politicians could still create a stronger opposition platform than what existed during the 2023 election.

“That said, if Peter Obi and Kwankwaso eventually form a political alliance ahead of future elections, it could make a significant difference compared to 2023,” he stated.

According to him, any serious challenge in 2027 would depend on more than just popularity or online support.

“They require strong grassroots mobilization, party unity, trusted local structures, religious and ethnic balancing, and the ability to protect votes across polling units. Even if Obi and Kwankwaso work together, translating public excitement into nationwide electoral victory will still be a major challenge,” Ibrahim said.

As coalition discussions continue, analysts say the success of any Obi-Kwankwaso partnership may ultimately depend on whether both politicians can transform their individual regional strengths into a truly national political movement capable of competing across Nigeria’s diverse electoral landscape.

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