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Mirror Particle is building a ‘world model’ of human behavior

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Startups that promise to predict how humans will behave are having a moment. Over the past year, Simile raised $200 million at a $2 billion valuation; Aaru raised $88 million at a $1 billion valuation; and Humans&, an AI startup that announced a massive $480 million seed round in January at a $4.48 billion valuation, launched Persimmon to model human behavior.

The status quo for human behavior prediction today relies heavily on large language models (LLMs) that are prompted or fine-tuned to role-play as a target demographic. But two-year-old, San Francisco-based Mirror Particle thinks that approach is fundamentally broken.

“It’s like bringing a super soaker to Niagara Falls,” says Abhivyakti Ahuja, co-founder and CEO of Mirror Particle, which provides brands with an AI engine that predicts consumer behavior and the reasons behind it. “LLMs have been trained on hundreds of billions of data points. How much can you influence its behavior by [fine-tuning] with such a small amount of data? It’s still stuck in the past.”

Ahuja doesn’t think LLMs see the world the way a human does. “LLMs are modeling written language, but humans are made of visual perception, spatial reasoning, social intelligence.” Relying on them, she says, means getting insights based on what humans don’t notice, which is beside the point when trying to predict human behavior. 

Mirror Particle is taking another approach: building a foundation model, or as Ahuja describes it, a world model built from scratch that simulates why humans do what they do and how human behavior changes over time. 

“We don’t want to capture the static person,” Ahuja said. “We want to capture the changing person. That means capturing the longitudinal data on how people are changing, what triggers are changing them and to what degree.” If they aren’t changing, she added, “that’s also a signal.”

Mirror Particle has already raised an angel round and says it’s close to closing its first venture round. The company is also competing next week in Startup Battlefield, TechCrunch’s renowned startup competition.

The startup relies on a proprietary combination of data that includes its clients’ customer data, current events, pop culture, social media, and more to model a demographic segment, thinking of it as a system that evolves over time and tracking how motivations shift as it moves through experiences. Much of the focus is on “revealed behavior” — what people actually do rather than self-reported survey answers.

Like its rivals, Mirror Particle’s initial go-to-market strategy focuses on where budgets already exist for these kinds of insights: market research and brand and product strategy. Mirror might, for instance, help a beauty brand not just write better ad copy for makeup that would appeal to Gen Z, but also determine if that demographic even wants that product. 

“What if [the target demographic] doesn’t want eyeshadow palettes?” Ahuja said. “Maybe blush is a better option to go for if you want to sell a product to this market.”

Mirror Particle’s prediction engine also provides customers with the “why” behind current or future behavior — the motivations, constraints, and additional context that justify its recommendation, helping brands make smarter decisions. 

In one early pilot, a well-known pet food brand wanted to know what imagery to put on the packaging to boost sales. Chicken? Beef? Vegetables? Mirror’s technology found that the brand was asking the wrong question. The imagery didn’t matter. The problem was that the brand was so recognizable that it was considered mass market and cheap, and sales would plateau until it addressed that perception issue.  

“The way we see our model evolving is like how a baby learns about the world,” Ahuja said, noting that babies move from vision to language to body awareness to social intelligence. 

That fundamental interest in modeling the human brain comes from Ahuja’s background studying neuroscience and computer science. Originally from India, she ended up studying at the University of Toronto, where she became inspired by AI pioneer Geoffrey Hinton’s contributions to neural networks. 

After school, Ahuja ended up at Amazon Robotics building robots that build other robots. That’s where she met her co-founders, Will Song and Thomson Yen. Song has spent a chunk of their career building sales personalization engines, and Yen focused on using deep learning to learn about how AI agents understand human behavior.   

The startup’s long-term vision is to be the “general layer for anticipating human behavior” and moving from broader population-level analyses to individual-level insights. 

“We just need a better model of humans if we’re going to work alongside AI and with each other,” Ahuja said.

Check out Mirror Particle and dozens of other innovative startups that have been vetted by TechCrunch’s editorial team next week at Disrupt in downtown San Francisco. The winner of this year’s Startup Battlefield will be decided by our slate of VC judges on the afternoon of Thursday, October 15.

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WAICA Relocates Secretariat to New Office in Accra

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The West African Insurance Companies Association (WAICA) has announced the relocation of its Secretariat from the National Insurance Commission (NIC) building in Ghana to a new rented facility at Pyramid House, on the fourth floor, along Ring Road in Accra.

The association disclosed this in a notice issued on behalf of its President, Governing Council and entire membership, explaining that the relocation was necessitated by the expansion of its operations to better serve its growing membership across West Africa.

According to the notice signed by Davies Ivasere, Secretary General/Chief Executive Officer of WAICA, the association had enjoyed the generosity and hospitality of Ghana’s National Insurance Commission, which had provided accommodation for its Secretariat since its inception.

However, as the association expands its activities and pursues new strategic initiatives, it has moved into dedicated office space to support its growing operational needs.

“Since inception, WAICA has enjoyed the immense generosity and hospitality of the National Insurance Commission (NIC), Ghana, which has graciously housed our Secretariat. As our operations expand to better serve our growing membership across West Africa, we have transitioned into dedicated office space to accommodate our strategic initiatives,” the notice stated.

The association consequently advised its stakeholders, members and partners to direct all correspondence relating to the WAICA Secretariat to its new address with immediate effect.

WAICA expressed appreciation to its partners for their continued support and commitment to advancing the insurance industry across the West African sub-region.

The relocation marks an operational development for the association as it seeks to strengthen its capacity to serve insurance companies and promote the growth of the regional insurance market.

The post WAICA Relocates Secretariat to New Office in Accra appeared first on Business Today NG.

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How OpenAI turned its coding tools into dots, an always-on personal assistant

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The always-on AI personal assistant, which keeps working in the background even when you aren’t asking it to, is this year’s answer to the question of how people will actually use deep learning models. The startup Instinct became an overnight sensation, and Meta put the full force of its marketing behind its assistant, Muse.

OpenAI wasn’t going to be left out. The company released dots, its assistant offering, at its developer day in late September. Alexander Embiricos, who leads OpenAI’s enterprise product team, joined us at TechCrunch Disrupt this month to explain where the product came from—starting with the question of why so many companies seem to be turning to cutesy mascots as avatars for their trillion-parameter matrix multiplication machines.

“There’s kind of this convergent evolution happening,” Embiricos said of the efforts to build AI assistants. “As we were working on the product, we realized if we could frame this as, it’s an entity and it’s a single conversation, not many different conversations….it starts to become intuitive.”

The assistant is available in the ChatGPT desktop and mobile apps to subscribers on the Pro tier or higher, with plans starting at $100 a month. Once it is connected to your calendar, email, computer and other tools, the agent tries to help you get your work done.

Embiricos points out that you could achieve much of dots’ functionality with Open AI’s Codex app, its coding tool, released at the beginning of this year. But that requires more work and hand-holding. He recalled celebrating when his wife started leaving her computer on all night so that her agents could keep working.

“On the product team, what I think about is, how do we make this intuitive and useful to people?” he told Disrupt attendees. “A lot of that isn’t building some new piece of tech into the product; it’s how you frame it to the user and how it feels.”

Making the technology feel intuitive meant repackaging the functionality of the company’s models into something more accessible, a path it was already on as it spun ChatGPT Work out of the agentic coding tools it had built for software engineers. Even the name—a play on the negative space inside of OpenAI’s logo—is intended “to feel like just something that could eventually be ubiquitous.” (Asked when he learned that rival AI entrepreneur Elon Musk owns the dot.com URL, Embiricos said, “I found out very late.”)

The idea of a persistent agent is that it doesn’t need prompting. For OpenAI, means more token usage, and for users, a more pro-active assistant “that’s sort of thinking about you and thinking how to help you,” as Embiricos put it.

In our testing, the assistant’s ability to think ahead is apparent and often useful, but it isn’t quite there yet. It will flag calendar conflicts and upcoming deadlines, but not necessarily in the most timely fashion.

“The first time it told me about one of those [conflicts]—this is like early in development—it told me three minutes before the thing,” Embiricos says of his dot. “It’s like, ‘Hey, this thing is coming up. You might want to do something about it.’ I only have three minutes!”

Embiricos expects the timing to improve over time, but the proactive approach is key to the product. “I was hearing about an engineer at a drone delivery startup, and they were saying, ‘We had this outage, and by the time I noticed that the outage was going on, my dot had already noticed the outage was happening, had already analyzed the outage, and had come to me with useful information for how we could resolve the outage.’”

Giving dot the keys

As with most AI agent use cases, there’s a tension between the personal information an AI model needs to be useful and exactly how much personal data you are exposing to a software company. Muse has been criticized for the profiles it builds of your family and friends, which the software uses to know, say, what kind of restaurant you might want to go to with a specific pal, but could also add incredible value to Meta’s advertising business. Does dots collect similar data?

“Yes, we have a thing that we built into dots, which we call proactive research,” Embiricos said. “On a cadence, it will think about what it knows about you, what is the conversation that it’s had, and then what have you given it access to that it can think about, and then it will go and research, ‘What could I do to be more helpful to you?’ And then, basically, it will propose that.”

It’s difficult to separate the data needs of the agent from that of its parent corporation. Hark, a start-up developing its own AI personal assistant, is explicit in pointing out it that it doesn’t collect data to fuel an advertising business the way that OpenAI and Meta do.

With dots, OpenAI says that the agent has the same privacy controls as ChatGPT itself: Users can turn off model training (stopping OpenAI from using their conversations to improve its AI), and control what resources it accesses within your computer and how. Still, those controls aren’t granular and the app can be pushy. For example, it refuses to accept read-only access to cloud drives.

“What I think we need to do is basically build out super, super, super granular controls,” Embiricos said, but he pointed to the model’s intelligence and discretion as the other side of this coin.

“This is actually something we kind of got some flack about when we launched,” Embiricos said. “We had really conservative defaults over what the agent would do, and it would ask for permission a lot. I remember knowing that we were going to see that feedback, but thinking, ‘This is okay, we can tune that over time.’”

Can personal AI agents scale?

The other big question about AI agents is whether they can scale. They’re fun when only a few people have them, and stories of agents snagging hard-to-get reservations abound. But businesses don’t necessarily like dealing with agents and might not be equipped to. People certainly don’t like dealing with them (note: stop having your AI agents pitch me), and Embiricos is among those people. He also has a human assistant because OpenAI’s corporate partners want to interact with a person, he said, adding, “I personally never intend to have a meeting with someone else’s agent.”

If the AI industry is right that agents are our future, can we get there without overwhelming the infrastructure that our world currently runs on, from businesses and websites to payment networks?

“At OpenAI…we’re not always moving the fastest in terms of shipping the next ability for the agent to work with the world,” he said. “When we do, we’re doing it really closely in collaboration with the rest of the ecosystem. I probably can’t say too much here, but we’re deep in lots of conversations with payment processors.”

Letting an AI assistant spend money through partnerships with payment companies would be a potentially lucrative first for OpenAI, but also a big ask for consumers. Giving an assistant access to my email inbox already feels like a big ask, but my bank account is off limits. For now.

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